Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
FILE PHOTO: Children eat bread on a street near a flag adopted by the new Syrian rulers, after the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, December 24, 2024.
Syria seeks sanction relief
Diplomats and foreign ministers from17 Arab and EU states convened in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Sunday to discuss the lifting of economic sanctions on Syria, originally imposed during the rule of ousted president Bashar al-Assad. Removing the sanctionsis key to reconstruction efforts for Damascus but will hinge on the new government’s ability to guarantee human rights in the country.
After the meeting, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbockadvocated maintaining sanctions against Assad’s allies but alleviating restrictions that affect the general population. Baerbock alsopledged an additional $51.2 million in aid for essential services. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also announceda meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels on Jan. 27 to discuss further relief measures.
As for the US, while it has not lifted sanctions, last week it issueda six-month exemption for certain transactions with Syrian governing institutions to expedite humanitarian assistance.
We’re watching whether those measures will be extended under the new administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, who in December said that Syria’s change of regime is “not our fight.” Trump also remarked that“Turkey is going to hold the key to Syria” – something thatSaudi Arabia may take issue with as it positions itself as a key regional player in Syria’s rebuilding.
Rescue teams work amid rubble in the aftermath of an earthquake in a location given as Shigatse City, Tibet Autonomous Region, China, January 7, 2025, in this screengrab obtained from a handout video.
Hard Numbers: Deadly Tibet earthquake, Laken Riley bill passed, Another BRICS in the wall, Remembering Charlie Hebdo massacre
126: At least 126 people have died following a major 7.1-magnitude earthquake that struck Tibet and parts of Nepal on Tuesday. The exact death toll is still unknown as the rough terrain in the world’s highest mountains makes it difficult to access affected communities. Dozens more people are believed to be trapped in rubble, and China’s government has deployed over 3,000 rescue workers to save as many as possible.
264-159: The US House of Representatives on Tuesday passed the so-called Laken Riley Act mandating the detention of undocumented immigrants accused of certain minor crimes by a margin of 264-159. It had bipartisan support, with 48 Democrats voting for the bill, as the party faces pressure to toughen up on immigration.
10: Indonesia became the 10th member of the BRICS multilateral organization on Tuesday, as new President Prabowo Subianto attempts to position his country as one of the leading emerging economies. He’ll need to watch his step, however, as incoming US President Donald Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on countries that attempt to displace the US dollar, which BRICS has long set as one of its aims.
10: France marked the 10-year anniversary of the brutal terrorist massacre of the staff of Charlie Hebdo magazine by two al-Qaida-linked gunmen on Tuesday. The terrorists killed 12 people in retaliation for the magazine publishing cartoons depicting the Islamic prophet Mohammed, prompting a massive outpouring of support for the slain staff, whom many French and European voters see as having died in the name of freedom of speech and thought.Ukrainian Armed Forces are deployed in the middle of the conflict with Russia on December 16, 2024. Ukraine claims that Russia has begun sending North Korean soldiers en masse to assaults in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces repel daily Russian attacks and control important areas.
North Korea preparing to send more troops to Russia as casualties rise, says Seoul
South Korean military officials said Monday that they had detected North Korean preparations to deploy more troops and weapons to Russia, and elaborated that at least 100 of Pyongyang’s soldiers had been killed and 1,000 more wounded so far, while Ukrainians claim 200 have died and nearly 3,000 had been wounded. If Seoul’s estimates are accurate, that would mean approximately one out of every ten troops dispatched since late October has already taken a wound or died.
The high casualty figures may stem from lack of battlefield experience and modern equipment, as North Korean units embedded with Russian peers attempt to push Ukrainians out of the Kursk region. It isn’t dampening Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s enthusiasm for cooperating with Russia, however, with the South Korean military claiming he has developed new suicide drones to send to the battlefront. US intelligence agencies said Monday that they believe North Korea offered Russia its troops, rather than the request originating in Moscow, in expectation of help with defense technology and political backing on the world stage.
Watch out for a nasty New Year’s gift, too. Seoul says Pyongyang may attempt to test a hypersonic missile in late December or early January. Just ahead of a presidential transition in the US, and with chaos in South Korean politics caused by impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s attempt to impose martial law on Dec. 3, don’t hold your breath for a strong response.Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks after signing an infrastructure agreement in Montreal, December 16, 2016.
Trudeau’s Darkest Hour
This is Justin Trudeau’s darkest hour.
Even as he shuffles his Cabinet tomorrow, it will not shuffle his political future. This is the endgame.
Eventually, all successful politicians turn into Dorian Gray — gazing into the mirror and seeing a reflection of beauty they believe voters will find irresistible. All the while, however, somewhere under a parliamentary staircase, a portrait of their political face is being ravaged by time, scandal, and betrayal. That is the bargain leaders inevitably make as they fight to stay in power.
There was President Joe Biden earlier in the year, still seeing the reflection of a robust man ready to govern for another four years despite the fact that he couldn’t get through 40 minutes of a presidential debate. He had to be pried out of the presidential limo by the Jaws of Pelosi.
In 2015, former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper thought he too saw another big election win in the mirror, but instead, insulated from reality inside his powerful prime minister’s office, he suffered a stunning defeat. The wheel of change is not partisan, but it is powerful.
Trudeau is now seeing the real portrait for the first time. After nine years in power, down 20 points in the polls, he has long refused to look, but his once trusted Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland just swiped the picture from under the stairs, waved it around publicly, and then lit it on fire.
It’s hard to imagine a more shambolic ending. Freeland was told by the PM — on a Zoom call, no less! —that she was going to be replaced as finance minister right after she presented the Fall Economic Statement (a kind of mini-budget in Canada) that would reveal the government blew past its own key deficit target by more than CA$20 billion. In other words, “Please wear this fiscal mess and let me move on to a new thing.”
How was that ever going to work? Naturally Freeland refused, but she didn’t simply quiet-quit and go gently into that good political night. Instead, just hours before she was set to deliver the FES, she chaos-quit with a controlled rage, rage-against-the-dying-of-light letter, dismissing Trudeau’s entire economic agenda as a self-serving “political gimmick.”
It blew the government apart.
It’s hard to declare winners and losers in this carnage, as everyone in the government is a casualty. The PM is now facing an open revolt by a growing number of MPs. Wayne Long, an outspoken Liberal, went on CTV’s ‘Power Play’ to say Trudeau is “delusional” and claimed that up to 40 MPS want him to resign, though that number has yet to be confirmed. Still, his sentiments were reflected in comments MPs told me, one saying bluntly, “I hope he announces he is stepping down.”
Freeland herself says she is running again, which basically kicked off the next leadership race, and she is likely the front-runner. But, as the saying goes, “The hand that wields the knife shall never wear the crown.” Freeland delivered four budgets for Trudeau, and even if she rightly fought back against the $1.6 billion goods and services tax holiday boondoggle, that hardly adds up to the over $20 billion overage on her own targets. If Canada is facing a fiscal reckoning and an angry electorate, isn’t Freeland as responsible as Trudeau? Would Canadians be able to disaggregate the two?
All this could not come at a worse time for Canada, now under direct threat from President-elect Donald Trump. He promises devastating 25% tariffs on Canada the day after he is inaugurated, and, with a hyena’s nose for weakness, he has persistently and publicly tormented Trudeau with the threat of making Canada the 51st state.
Pause on that for a second because it is unprecedented in Canadian-US history, unless you want to go back to … 1812, before Confederation. What started out as a Trump taunt is starting to look more like a Trump trial balloon. Trump’s son Eric has amplified the idea on social media, and now, on places like Fox News, taking over Canada is a topic of genuine debate.
With Trump, the first question is always: Do we take him literally, or seriously, or both?
And the lesson people have learned in the last eight years is: both.
Even as government officials have dismissed the threat as a joke, others are taking it seriously. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is showing up on American news programs defending Canada and threatening to cut off energy exports.
Trump trades in three currencies: power, fame, and loyalty. A lame duck leader of a foreign country who has only one of these three may come to Mar-a-Lago for dinner, but he might well end up on the menu.
The best hope Canada has is for the 35 state governors who depend on Canada as their top trading partner to act as de facto proxies for Canada, and push back against tariffs that will hurt their workers and economies.
Now what?
A few paths:
One, Trudeau stays and runs again after tomorrow’s Cabinet shuffle. There are no polls or signs that would suggest this is the most productive path, but, until he leaves, it has to be an option.
Two, Trudeau leaves, prorogues parliament, and the leadership race kicks off. The rules around that election will be crucial for the Liberal Party.
Can Liberals afford to take three months to elect a leader while Trump launches trade tariffs and the Conservatives consolidate their lead in the polls? It is not advisable.
On the other hand, can they afford to do a short 30-35-day process, in which case very few Canadian voters and new candidates will get involved? That might not end up injecting any fresh blood into the party at all. The Democrats tried it in the US and ended up with a frothy Kamala Harris campaign start and a miserable end.
There are few good options for the leader and the party right now, but if the government falls on a confidence motion in the new year, then the race is one with Trudeau at the helm, which is exactly what the opposition parties want most of all.
Nothing can happen until the prime minister decides what he will do.
It’s coming on Christmas, as Joni Mitchell once sang, the day the prime minister was born, but instead of seeing a star in the sky, even he knows this is his darkest political hour. The only guide he has might be those portraits of other prime ministers that hang in the halls of Parliament, each of whom has had to ask the same impossibly hard question: When is my time up?
Only a few of them got to choose their own answer.
--FILE--Chinese workers check tungsten ore at a factory
Why is the Pentagon funding a Canadian tungsten mine?
Most Americans are likely unaware that the Department of Defense has morphed into a major mining investor but it is becoming a significant backer of Canada’s critical minerals sector. Last Friday, the DoD announced it is investing $15.5 million in a feasibility study at a tungsten mine in eastern Yukon owned by Fireweed Metals. The Canadian government is a partner in the project, upgrading roads and transmission lines.
The investment falls under the Defence Production Act, which is intended to streamline critical defense supply chains. Under the DPA, Canada is considered a domestic source of resources for the US, hence the DoD cash. This is the sixth such investment in a Canadian company and comes at a time when concerns are growing about stockpiles of minerals used in aerospace components, munitions and ground-vehicle armour.
China has dominated the sector, extracting 60 % of rare earth elements and processing 90% of global supply. Prices for many minerals have tanked because of Chinese oversupply, leaving North American companies struggling to attract capital. Canada’s production of minerals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and zinc has declined as a result.
The US and Canada have a new strategy: partner up to address unfair competition and deliberate over-production in the sector. The Fireweed deal is unlikely to be the last.
President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden make remarks at the first-ever White House Conference on Women's Health Research in Washington, D.C., United States, on December 11, 2024.
One last crackdown on chips for Biden
Joe Biden might not be done with his yearslong effort to limit China’s access to advanced computer chips. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Biden administration is preparing new rules to cap the sale of chips to certain countries in Southeast Asia and the Middle East that may be acting as intermediaries for China.
While Biden has enacted strict export controls limiting the sale of advanced chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, there is still an underground market for these products thriving in the Middle Kingdom.
It’s unclear which countries would be capped from receiving large quantities of chips, but the US has kept a close eye on Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s own AI ambitions, even as it has struck deals with both countries. The updated rules are expected to come later this month, mere weeks before Biden’s presidency ends.
This footage, published Sunday (29May2022) shows the Frigate Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov conducts a test firing of Zircon hypersonic cruise missile in the Barents Sea. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, the test firing hit a target in the White Sea. It was part of a test of new Russian weapons. Russian officials claimed the missile successfully hit a sea target located at a distance of about 1,000 km. Where: Russian Federation
Putin threatens NATO and Ukraine (yet again)
The Ukrainian military brazenly assassinated General Igor Kirillov, who was in charge of Russia's nuclear and chemical weapons forces, on the streets of Moscow on Tuesday by detonating an explosive device. The killing marks the highest-profile assassination by Ukraine since the invasion. Kyiv has accused Kirillov of overseeing the “massive use of banned chemical weapons” in Ukraine. Moscow, meanwhile, has vowed “inevitable retaliation” against the “military and political leadership of Ukraine.”
The assassination came the day after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin warned that he might lift self-imposed restrictions on Russia’s development of short- and medium-range missiles, while warning that the West was pushing on “a red line we can’t step back from.” In a speech to the Defense Ministry, he also signaled that Russia would keep its non-strategic nuclear forces on constant combat alert and increase production of hypersonic ballistic missiles, like the one it fired at Ukraine for the first time last month. Hypersonic missiles travel at five to 25 times the speed of sound, making them difficult to defend against – though some scientistsdoubt their value as offensive weapons. Only the US, China, and India have also flown missiles at hypersonic speed.
There’s nothing new about apocalyptic-sounding threats from the Kremlin, and these warnings are best understood as Putin’s attempt to project strength that might dissuade the Joe Biden administration from providing Ukraine with material help during his final month as president. It’s also meant to frighten European governments away from investing more heavily in Ukraine’s defense.
Finally, Putin wants to maximize Ukrainian, American, and European perceptions of the costs and risks of intensified war with Russia ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the pressure he might apply ahead of his promised negotiations to end the war.
People celebrate after fighters of the ruling Syrian body ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Aleppo, Syria, December 13, 2024.
From Assad to Uncertainty
Syria’s new leadership claims it wants to prioritize stability and reconstruction over further conflict – but will that be possible? With Israel fortifying the Golan Heights, Turkey expanding its influence, and Russia retreating, we’re watching this week if Syria and its neighbours will manage to get along — and how allies and adversaries will react.
No new confrontation – for now. Inan interview given on Saturday to Syria TV, Ahmad al-Sharaa — formerly known by his nom de guerre “Abu Mohammed al-Golani” — the leader of the HTS, stated that despite Israel having “clearly crossed the lines of engagement in Syria”, the country’s war-weary condition “does not allow for new confrontations.” Instead, Al-Sharaa stated that HTS’ priorities are reconstruction and stability and called for diplomatic solutions to ensure Syria’s security.
Israel is still wary. Despite al-Sharaa’s moderate tone, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katzmaintained that security threats to Israel have not diminished. Israeli forces remain present in the buffer zone inside Syria and continue to conduct strikes on military targets. On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans todouble the Israeli population of the Golan Heights as a defensive measure against the “new front” that had opened up in the wake of Assad’s ouster, but says his country has "no interest in a conflict with Syria."
Iran steps out, Turkey steps in. Assad’s fall dealta severe blow to Tehran’s influence in Syria, a vacuum Ankara is only too happy to fill. Turkey has now offered toprovide military training to Syria's new administration if requested, and will maintain troops in several cities in northern Syria, where it has been conducting military operations since 2016. Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Güler said his country’s priority remains the elimination of Kurdish militias, which enjoy US backing but are considered terrorists by Turkey.
What about Russia? The other big loser in Syriais Moscow, which had heavily backed Assad’s regime for years, in exchange for strategic positions within the country including the Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus Naval Base. Recent satellite imagery has shown Russian forcespacking up military equipment and preparing for transport. The Kremlin has confirmed that Moscow isin discussions with HTS about retaining its two bases, but has withdrawn troops from frontline positions.
Will the United States fill the gap? US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saturday that Washington has beenactively engaging with Syria's new leadership but gave no details on when or at what level. Blinken met over the weekend with regional leaders in Jordan to discuss Syria’s future as well as seek the return of Austin Tice, an American journalist detained a decade ago in Syria.
Blinken also emphasized the importance of destroying chemical weapons and rejecting terrorism, warning that “This is a moment of vulnerability in which ISIS will seek to regroup.”
Could US policy change under Trump? When Assad’s government fell, President-elect Donald Trumpposted “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"
Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security adviser, told Fox News last week that Trump was elected with an overwhelming mandate to keep the United States out of regional wars, and that America's"core interests" remain ISIS, Israel and "our Gulf Arab allies". There are no indications that Trump or his team have reached out to HTS, but the President-elect has reportedly spoken with Netanyahuabout Israel’s plans to expand settlements in the Golan Heights.