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U.S. President Joe Biden stands with his son Hunter Biden, who earlier in the day was found guilty on all three counts in his criminal gun charges trial, after President Biden arrived at the Delaware Air National Guard Base in New Castle, Delaware, U.S., June 11, 2024.
Biden pardons son after promising not to do so
So much for the rule of law. After previously promising to allow the justice system to handle Hunter Biden’s federal felony gun and tax convictions, outgoing President Joe Biden instead issued a "full and unconditional pardon" to his son on Sunday. “I hope Americans will understand why a father and a President would come to this decision,” Biden said, noting that he felt his son was singled out for political reasons.
The younger Biden’s serious problems with drugs, infidelity, and questionable overseas business deals were frequent targets for Republicans over the last four years, including as part of an aborted attempt to impeach the president. He’ll now avoid possibly decades behind bars, though federal sentencing guidelines were expected to call for less time.
President-elect Donald Trump responded to the pardon by posting on social media, “Does the Pardon given by Joe to Hunter include the J-6 Hostages, who have now been imprisoned for years?” (Nope). Trump is calling the kettle orange when it comes to familial clemency: He pardoned his son-in-law's father Charles Kushner after the 2020 election and just appointed him ambassador to France. But Biden is singing a similar to tune to Trump by pointing to the politicization of the justice system.
Ukrainian service members of the 43rd Hetman Taras Triasylo Separate Artillery Brigade fire towards Russian troops in a Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, at a position in Donetsk region, Ukraine October 26, 2024.
Ukrainians and North Koreans clash in Russia. Could NATO get involved?
Ukrainian officials said Monday their troops had fired upon North Koreans in the Kursk region, which Ukraine has partially occupied, in the first known contact between the two sides. Thus far, the action has been confined to Russian territory, where North Korea can point to its mutual defense pact with Russia for some legal cover (not that Pyongyang has admitted it deployed a single soldier yet), but what happens if the Korean People’s Army pushes into Ukraine proper?
It’s a possibility the US is eager to head off, according to Eurasia Group and GZERO President Ian Bremmer. “The United States sees North Korean combat troops entering Ukraine (as opposed to Kursk, on Russian territory) as a major escalation in the war — and has warned Russia that such a decision would risk NATO troops being sent into Ukraine,” Bremmer said after discussions with senior Biden administration officials. The National Security Administration and NATO did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
There are reasons for skepticism: Ukraine is not a NATO member and has expressed great frustration with its allies over how fear of escalation in Western capitals has clipped its military’s wings and resulted in preventable civilian and military deaths. How seriously Russian President Vladimir Putin takes it all depends heavily on the results of the US election tomorrow, as a second Trump administration would be much friendlier to Russian interests.
But Eurasia Group analyst Jeremy Chan says Moscow ought to be well aware of the risks. “As soon as North Korean troops cross into sovereign Ukrainian territory, it would make resolving the conflict far more complicated,” he says. “It would also engender a dramatic response from the West, and you could even see the Chinese come off their preferred position right on top of the fence because this would not be in Beijing's interests and would be a pretty flagrant violation of China’s five principles of peaceful coexistence.”
Footage circulated online on Oct 18, 2024 shows North Korean troops training in Russia.
North Korean troops expected to engage Ukrainians within days as allies flounder
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says North Korean soldiers are expected to deploy in combat against Ukrainians in the coming days, while American Deputy UN Ambassador Robert Wood said 8,000 of Pyongyang’s soldiers are in the Kursk region, which Ukraine has partially occupied.
Blinken spoke after meeting with his South Korean counterpart, Cho Tae-yeol, and Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun alongside US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, as Washington and Seoul attempt to coordinate a response to Pyongyang’s provocations.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed deep disappointment in the thus-far anemic response from allies in an interview with South Korean broadcaster KBS, saying Moscow and Pyongyang would press the envelope further. “If there is nothing — and I think that the reaction to this is nothing, it has been zero — then the number of North Korean troops on our border will be increased,” he said.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol had expressed hope of sending weapons and advisers directly to Ukraine, but he’s hemmed in by constitutional restrictions and political realities he can’t overcome, as GZERO previously reported.
“South Korea and the West are grasping at straws to generate a significant response because there is widespread alarm and recognition that we have entered uncharted waters,” said Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan. “But North Korea will continue to get away with this because there aren’t a whole lot of good options.”
With the US election just days away, and the opposition that controls the legislature in Seoul deeply opposed to taking steps that could anger North Korea, we’re watching for more troops, more missiles, and deepening Pyongyang-Moscow ties before anyone in Seoul, Washington, or Beijing pushes back hard.
FILE PHOTO: Afghan women walk after the recent earthquake in the district of Zinda Jan, in Herat, Afghanistan October 10, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Iran suspected of killing Afghan migrants, Meta busts lunch scheme, Venezuela jails more foreigners, US and NATO mark a decade of fighting ISIS
2 million: The United Nations has called for an investigation into reports that Iran’s security forces opened fire last weekend on roughly 200 Afghan migrants who had entered the country illegally, killing an unknown number of them. Iran has threatened to deport as many as 2 million undocumented Afghan migrants who live in the country as refugees from decades of war and famine in their home country.
25: There’s no free lunch, they say – but if there were, you certainly shouldn’t use the money to buy acne treatment pads, wine glasses, or laundry detergent. Meta has fired around two dozen employees in its Los Angeles office after they were caught using the company’s $25 meal allowances to purchase household items.
5: Venezuela has arrested five foreigners, including three Americans, on charges of terrorism. Since winning a heavily disputed election this summer, President Nicolas Maduro has cracked down on the opposition, accusing it of collaborating with foreign intelligence operatives. The recent arrests bring to 12 the number of foreigners detained in Venezuela.
10: The US and NATO allies on Thursday marked 10 years since the start of their campaign to defeat Islamic State, often referred to as “ISIS.” On the plus side, the terror organization was rooted out of its modern “caliphate” strongholds in Syria and Iraq. On the minus side, it has shown a growing presence and capability in the Sahel, where some local governments are pushing out Western forces, and Central Asia, where Islamic State is at war with the Taliban in Afghanistan and has managed to carry out attacks in Russia.
FILE PHOTO: Police officers stand at the entrance to a building during a raid in Berlin-Friedrichshain. Security forces have searched several properties in Berlin, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein in connection with the ban on the terrorist organization Hamas and the international network Samidoun in Germany.
US and Canada list Samidoun as a terrorist group
The United States and Canada both moved Tuesday to designate Samidoun as a terrorist entity, following Germany, which banned the group last year, and the Netherlands, which banned it last week. Samidoun, which is also known as the Palestinian Prisoner Solidarity Network, is headquartered in Vancouver and is accused of having links to and advancing the agenda of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, which is already listed as a terrorist group.
The listing means that governments in both countries can freeze assets belonging to the group and prevent them from banking, for instance.
Calls for Samidoun to be listed increased after a rally in Vancouver on Oct. 7, the anniversary of the terrorist attack on Israel, where a masked woman led a crowd in chants of “death to Canada, death to the United States, and death to Israel,” and Canadian flags were burned.
Prosecutors are weighing whether to file hate speech charges against one of the group’s leaders over an earlier rally.
In Canada and the United States, rallies against the war in Gaza have inflamed tensions, and antisemitic incidents have increased dramatically.
On Tuesday, Israel released a report warning that antisemitism in Canada is on the rise and that Jewish places of worship, community centers, and day schools have been targeted. On Saturday morning, a Toronto Jewish girls’ day school was shot at for the second time. Nobody was hurt, and students have returned to class, but the community is fearful.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the National Defense University in Pyongyang, North Korea, October 7, 2024, in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.
North Korea severs connections to South as tensions climb
South Korea’s military announced Monday it had detected North Korea preparing to destroy roads connecting the two countries, the latest in a series of steps advancing Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s renunciation of peaceful reunification. Pyongyang also threatened to attack the South over alleged drone incursions this weekend and announced it would begin fortifying its side of the border last week.
Kim’s sister and close ally Kim Yo Jong also flung invective at Seoul’s troops on Monday, calling them “mongrels tamed by Yankees” and saying that their “master” — the US — must be held accountable for the alleged drone flights over the Hermit Kingdom. On Friday, South Korea’s defense minister denied responsibility for the drones, which allegedly dropped anti-regime leaflets, and later said “we cannot verify the truth behind North Korea’s claims.” It is highly likely that any drones were flown by private organizations that attempt to agitate in North Korea and have distributed leaflets by balloon in the past.
All in all, Pyongyang’s provocations — which, lest we forget, include deploying troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine — are part of a pattern of escalation dating back to at least the fall of 2023, says Eurasia Group regional analyst Jeremy Chan. Whether it continues may depend heavily on the results of the US election, as “North Korea is trying to build out leverage it could bargain away in a potential future Trump administration while retaining its nuclear deterrent,” says Chan.
Trump’s advisors have signaled an openness to accepting a freeze in North Korea’s nuclear program – rather than full denuclearization – in return for sanctions relief. “But a freeze probably isn’t going to be enough for Trump,” says Chan. “If Kim could also agree to a moratorium on developing North Korea’s nuclear-powered submarines, military spy satellites, and long-range missiles, however, that could give enough of a win to Trump to sell to the American people.”
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te delivers a speech at the Presidential Palace during the Taiwan National Day (Double Ten) celebration at the Presidential Palace in Taipei on October 10, 2024.
Taiwan’s president flexes independence in National Day speech
Taiwanese President William Lai on Thursday took a shot at mainland China’s claims of sovereignty over self-governing Taiwan, saying, “The People’s Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan.” The remarks, delivered in a closely watched speech marking the 113th anniversary of the revolution that founded the Republic of China (Taiwan’s formal name), won’t sit well with Beijing.
The People’s Republic of China maintains the so-called “One China” policy and sees democratic Taiwan as a rebellious province that will eventually be reunified with the mainland. The only question, from Beijing’s perspective, is whether that happens militarily or politically, and rhetoric like Lai’s seems to make the window for a peaceful resolution even smaller.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly ordered his military to be prepared to retake Taiwan by 2027, although that doesn’t mean he will actually attack that year. Some members of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang Party, including former President Ma Ying-jeou, worry that Lai is endangering Taiwan by antagonizing China.
In response to Lai’s speech, Taiwanese officials expect China to conduct military drills around the island — a demonstration large enough to show Beijing’s displeasure with Lai’s statements. However, China’s economic malaise is occupying much of the leadership’s focus, and the odds of seeing more provocative military measures are low.
FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., September 18, 2024.
Interest rate cuts are doing their thing. Will more come soon?
Recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, along with lower inflation rates in both countries, are spurring … talk of more cuts. This includes a potential “jumbo” cut this month in Canada.
A former deputy governor of Canada’s central bank is arguing for a half-point cut when the bank meets in late October, and he’s betting on it. Paul Beaudry argues that the economic stimulus would spur the Canadian economy – by boosting consumer and business spending.
Statistics Canada reports that the country’s inflation rate was 2% in August while the US Bureau of Labor Statistics pegged the rate south of the border at 2.5%.
In September, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, its first trim in four years. That had effects on both sides of the border, given how close the US and Canadian economies are linked. Some Canadian mortgage rates on offer ticked down after the cut, dipping below 4%. So too did their US counterparts, triggering an immediate jump in real estate hunting and refinancing.
Experts believe the Fed will embrace more cuts in the coming months, aiming for a target of 4-4.25%, with even lower rates on the docket for 2025. The Fed and Bank of Canada will drive borrowing costs down and offer some relief to consumers and borrowers as both economies continue to level out.