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People are carrying a banner with political phrases during a rally in support of Nicolas Maduro's campaign in San Cristobal, Venezuela, on July 10, 2024.
Viewpoint: How far will Venezuela’s leader go to retain power?
As Venezuelans prepare to head for the polls on July 28, President Nicolas Maduro is pulling out all the stops to secure a third term in office and extend the Chavismo political movement’s 25-year grip on power. Chosen by the movement’s founder Hugo Chavez to succeed him as president, Maduro first won election in 2013 and has grown steadily more authoritarian.
Though Maduro pledged the coming election would be free and fair under the terms of the Norway-brokered “Barbados Agreement,” he has already reneged on some of its key terms. The agreement represents the latest in a series of attempts by the US and Latin American and European countries to encourage greater democratic opening in Venezuela.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targow what to expect from this weekend’s vote.
Do you think Maduro will do whatever it takes to ensure he remains in office?
It’s pretty clear at this point that Maduro is going to hold this election on his own terms. We’ve seen him bar the participation of the winner of the opposition primary, Maria Corina Machado, and her chosen successor, Corina Yoris. He has also taken steps to limit both credible electoral observation, including that of the EU, and voting by opposition supporters such as Venezuelans living abroad. All of these moves represent a violation of the Barbados Agreement.
On election day, I think the regime is hoping it can rely on various measures to suppress opposition voter turnout and mobilize its own base so that it doesn’t have to resort to ballot tampering to win. But I do think it is willing to do whatever it takes. I don’t think Maduro is going anywhere.
Would an opposition candidate likely win a fair election, and if so, why?
Yes, absolutely. What we’re seeing from credible polls is that Edmundo Gonzalez, the new unified opposition candidate, has an advantage of between 20 and 30 percentage points over Maduro. Maduro has been in power for 11 years and has overseen a substantial deterioration of economic conditions, the result of government mismanagement exacerbated by US sanctions aimed at forcing democratic reforms. Though conditions are finally stabilizing, multiple years of deep economic contraction have triggered massive migration outflows. About 7 million Venezuelans are living abroad today.
What’s more, this is the first presidential election since 2013 that the main opposition forces are all participating and backing a single candidate, which is one of the reasons Gonzalez is polling so well.
What is the likelihood of protests or violence around the election?
I think some level of violence or instability related to the vote could manifest in two ways, and I would say that both of them are somewhat likely. The first would be violence on election day as part of a repertoire of measures to discourage support for the opposition that includes moving polling stations from opposition strongholds or blocking their entrances and deploying the so-called colectivos (regime-affiliated criminal groups) to attack voters.
The second is the potential for unrest after the election, assuming that Maduro claims victory. There’s been a groundswell of support for the opposition, and its voters would probably feel like the election had been stolen. That said, recent polls suggest that voter appetite to take to the streets has waned, probably because of the regime’s violent repression of previous anti-government protests.
How do you think the international community is likely to react if Maduro wins what appears to be a fraudulent election?
This would be a difficult situation for the US, the EU, and some of Maduro’s key allies in the region such as Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro. These regional leaders were trying to welcome Maduro back into the fold after the failed Juan Guaido experiment [the former head of Venezuela’s National Assembly claimed in 2019 to be the country’s legitimate president – and won recognition from many countries around the world – but then failed to consolidate his domestic support]. I would be surprised if they fully abandon Maduro and break off ties with him again.
The EU likewise has a bias toward normalization, though its electoral observation mission was uninvited by the regime, and if there is a lot of fraud, it will be forced to condemn the results. In the US, President Joe Biden’s administration also prefers normalization and engagement but will take its cues from how the opposition characterizes the elections. Regardless, I don’t see the US, at least under the Biden administration, going back to what they called the “maximum pressure” sanctions regime that we had in place up until September 2022.
What do you think the continuance of the Maduro regime means for the quality of life in Venezuela?
As I mentioned, the economic situation has stabilized somewhat over the last couple of years. Ironically, in response to the US sanctions, Maduro has become much more pragmatic in terms of economic policy. He has allowed for a dollarization of the economy and stopped printing money, so inflation has really come down. Still, there is a deep divide between those who have access to dollars and can afford to pay for imported goods and those who don’t. So, it’s no longer the case that the shelves in stores are empty, but you have to have the money to pay for them.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
Chilean demonstrators take part in a rally against migrants and delinquency in Iquique, Chile, on January 30, 2022.
Hard Numbers: Chileans protest Venezuelan migrants, US rent on the rise, Myanmar coup anniversary, Benefits of Brexit
4,000: More than 4,000 Chileans demonstrated Monday in the northern city of Iquique against migration from Venezuela in response to a video of Venezuelan criminals attacking Chilean police at a checkpoint. Chile, one of South America’s wealthiest states, has seen a recent influx of migrants fleeing Venezuela’s deteriorating economy.
40: Pandemic-related economic disruption upped rent by as much as 40 percent in some US cities last year, forcing thousands to find alternative living arrangements. Many local rent freezes and eviction moratoriums have expired, leaving lower earners vulnerable to homelessness and subsequent health risks.
1,500: Around 1,500 people have been killed since Myanmar’s military staged a coup one year ago. Against the backdrop of sustained popular resistance, political stalemate persists, and the generals continue to quash all dissent.
100: The UK government has released a new 100-page Benefits of Brexit report, outlining “how the EU is taking advantage of the UK leaving the EU.” This comes as London is preparing new legislation that will override some EU laws that remain in place.What We're Watching: Trump and the Uighurs, Maduro tightens his grip, George Floyd's impact in Indonesia
Does Trump support the Uighurs or not? President Trump signed a law Wednesday that would allow the United States to sanction Chinese officials involved in the detainment of that country's Uighur Muslim minority in Xinjiang province, a scheme long deemed to be a gross human rights violation by the United Nations. More than one million Uighurs are believed to have been locked up since 2017 as part of what Beijing describes as a benign "deradicalization campaign," but is widely believed to be a network of internment camps where minorities are held indefinitely without trial. President Trump said the measure is proof that his administration is "tough on China", and Chinese leaders have vowed retaliation. But the signing came on the same day as fresh allegations from former national security adviser John Bolton that Trump had at one point given the green light to Chinese President Xi Jinping to build the Uighur camps and asked for help with his own re-election campaign. The Trump administration says Bolton's claims, which are difficult to prove, are the lies of a "sick puppy."
Maduro tightens the noose around the opposition: It's been well over a year now since most of the world's democracies recognized Venezuelan National Assembly speaker Juan Guaidó as "interim president." But despite that slight, and a deepening social and economic crisis, strongman president Nicolas Maduro remains firmly in power, while Guaidó seems more and more like a spent force. Now Maduro is laying the groundwork to undercut Guaidó further after a Supreme Court packed with regime cronies replaced the heads of two major opposition parties this week, placing them under the control of figures loyal to Maduro. While Guaidó's own party isn't affected, the two parties in question control nearly a third of the National Assembly seats, a major reason why the body remains the only branch of government that is not under Maduro's control. Taken together with last week's move to seat a new electoral commission under the control of Maduro loyalists, it looks like the regime wants to make it nearly impossible for the opposition to keep control over the Assembly in elections that are to be scheduled later this year. Both the US and EU — which recognize Guaidó as the country's legitimate interim president — have condemned the moves, but what are they prepared to do about it?
George Floyd's impact on a verdict in Indonesia: US protests against police brutality and racism have reverberated around the world in many ways, but did they even echo into an Indonesian courtroom? A leader of the decades-old movement for Papuan independence and one of the "Balikpapan Seven" was found guilty of treason this week, for leading 2019 rallies in response to a viral video of Indonesian police using racial slurs against ethnic West Papuan students. But the sentence was only 11 months behind bars, much less than the 17 years demanded by the prosecution. According to one Papuan activist — who spent over 10 years in prison for waving the (banned) Morning Star flag — the judge was influenced by the global anti-racism protests sparked by George Floyd's death.What’s happening in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries?
The coronavirus pandemic has monopolized much of the world's attention for months now, but the conflicts and crises plaguing some of the most vulnerable countries have not stopped. In some cases they have only gotten worse. Here's a look at what's been happening in some of the world's most intractable hotspots in the months since the COVID-19 crisis took center stage.
Venezuela turns to Iran: For several years Venezuela has been mired in one of the world's worst economic crises, which has made access to food and medication extremely difficult for ordinary Venezuelans. President Nicolas Maduro seems to have weathered the challenge to his political power, but the economy is another story. The country's crucial oil sector, already gutted by US sanctions and mismanagement, has taken a further hit in recent months as the pandemic sent the global economy into a tailspin. As a result, even as coronavirus clobbers Latin America, many Venezuelans have expressed greater fear of dying from starvation than of contracting COVID-19. It doesn't help that the country is now running out of gas – and fast. Workers are waiting in long lines to fill up their tanks, while fuel shortages are preventing sick people from accessing medical care. This week, Maduro turned to another US-designated pariah for help: Iran. The Islamic Republic obliged by sending five oil tankers carrying an estimated 60 million gallons of gas across the Atlantic, a move Maduro hailed as a "victory."
Yemen's civil war grinds on: Last month, a temporary ceasefire between the two warring sides – Saudi-backed official government forces and Houthi rebels backed by Iran – raised hopes that Yemen's five-year war might be nearing its end. The truce had been backed by the Saudis, in what some analysts said was a sign that that the kingdom wanted an out: Oil prices are less than half what they were a year ago and the coronavirus is having a big impact on the kingdom's economy. Meanwhile, Riyadh's involvement in "the world's worst humanitarian crisis" was complicating its ties with Washington. (Congressional Democrats and Republicans tried several times to block arms sales to the Saudis over their involvement in Yemen, but the move was blocked by the White House.) Hours after the UN-backed truce came into effect, Houthi forces continued their drive to capture oil-rich Marib province. Since then, the fighting has only gotten worse, with the Saudis launching some 190 retaliatory air raids in recent weeks, according to the Yemen Data Project. So far, repeated appeals from the UN to halt fighting as several COVID-19 clusters have been identified around the country, have been ignored, despite the fact that Yemen has little hospital capacity to deal with an epidemic.
South Sudan's fragile peace: After six years of civil war that displaced some 4.5 million people, sparking Africa's largest refugee crisis, the nine-year old country of South Sudan has experienced relative calm in recent months owing to a unity-deal that brought rebel leaders into the government led by President Saalva Kiir. But sporadic violence between rival ethnic communities has continued in eastern Jonglei state, prompting fears that conflict could spill over into the rest of the country. In the first quarter of 2020, inter-communal violence killed some 658 civilians, while looting, mass rape and abductions have continued unabated, the UN says. These inter-communal clashes have been getting worse in recent years as fighters gained access to assault weapons. Now the fate of the recent unity deal hangs in the balance in a country where some 7.5 million people rely on some form of aid to survive.
Coronavirus in Wuhan; Tanzanian Papayas; Maduro's Strength in Venezuela
With new coronavirus cases emerging in Wuhan, what does that mean for China?
Well, it means that transmission is very much a concern, even in a country that has the most draconian capacity to keep people in place, quarantine and track and surveil them. So, you've got, I guess, 11 new cases already that they're telling us about. Almost certainly more than that. And they're saying that they're going to test 11 million people in Wuhan in the coming six days. Let's see if they're able to actually get that done. But to be very clear, there is no country in the world that would be able to do broader and more immediate mandatory testing than the Chinese. And what they really want to show, I mean, for all of the backlash internationally for being responsible for the original cover up and the pandemic and also for not handling international leadership well, a lot of the mask diplomacy was more about propaganda than really making a difference for countries that needed the help, but at least in terms of getting the economy running again, while the Americans and Europeans are still locked down, the Chinese are not. And indeed, the supply chain is back up. And that really does matter. And that's what they want to focus on, both for domestic purposes and internationally. So, I think that's a big deal. And we're going to see that China will do everything possible to allow for continued confidence in their supply chain. That matters immensely for Xi Jinping's tenure.
What is going on in Tanzania?
There are definitely leaders around the world who make Donald Trump and Boris Johnson's early efforts look downright Churchillian. And Tanzania may well take the cake, where the president has initially locked a bunch of things down, but not any international flights and not local restaurants and bars and perhaps most importantly, not churches. In fact, he said everyone should go to church because coronavirus cannot live in the body of Christ. Now, this is a PhD in chemistry who is actually saying this. He's also saying that there are very few deaths from coronavirus in the country. He's made it illegal for people to talk about it. And there's been all sorts of military and public security who have been seen hiding away dead bodies, taking them away in the middle of the night. Clearly, this is a much bigger problem on the ground in Tanzania than they want to admit. And the people are suffering from a president who is actively promoting fake news. But the best part of the story is that the way that they know that people are faking positives in cases is that he had a papaya and a goat sent to get tested, samples, and they both came back positive. And so, you know, at the very least, do not eat Tanzanian papayas. That's the one piece of news I can definitely take away from this. I'm certainly not going to. I just want to be clear on that.
After the botched invasion of Venezuela, is Maduro's hand strengthened?
No. His economy is a disaster and his oil is worthless. And the people are very unhappy, but they're also exhausted. The Cuban intelligence is still supporting them on the ground. The Americans aren't going to do very much aside from continuing to strangle the economy. Not like we need a lot of help on that front. And the military is with him. So, I mean, I think his hand was strong and his hand is strong. I mean, it's kind of like Assad right now. You've got a bunch of really horrible leaders around the world and it doesn't matter how disastrous the economy is for the people, their ability to rebel against it just isn't there. Now, I mean, if the army in Venezuela starts feeling like they're not getting fed and the economic implosion starts impacting them, well, fear by itself probably isn't going to keep Maduro in place. You do need the military to have oil. But for now, we don't see that changing. And the opposition is in utter disarray.
COVID-19 in US, Emerging Markets; US-China Blame Game; Venezuela Coup?
What is the coronavirus update? Have emerging markets been spared so far?
The biggest news is that the US might have a lot more mortality from coronavirus than previously expected in the models. Particularly as we start seeing opening of economies. The US is a federal system and states don't necessarily listen to each other. They don't follow the federal government, and people don't necessarily pay attention to what state governments say. Put all that together, expect to see a lot more people get sick. Whether that is 3,000 or 800 deaths a day, two wildly different models, for the next month. What I've seen so far makes me feel a bit more optimistic, because opening up economies isn't people in full engagement. Big difference in what government says and what people do.
Have emerging markets been spared so far?
Not at all. But, it is hitting emerging markets a little later. Also, numbers of cases are suppressed by the fact that they're not doing as much testing. In some cases, also suppressed by the fact that maybe there is reduced transmission with much warmer weather. I hope that's the case, but the doctors aren't agreed. Either way, the developing world is focusing more on keeping economies open than at extended lockdowns. For some of the poorest countries, like in sub-Saharan Africa, where average age can be under 20, and economies aren't as globalized, in many cases, focused more on agriculture, the fact that they are as underdeveloped as they are is ironically buffering and protecting them from the worst of the coronavirus crisis.
What are the consequences of US-China blame game over coronavirus origins?
The most important consequence is that we'll see more confrontation and less interdependence between the two economies. The Americans will be investing less in China, reducing supply chain footprint, allowing Chinese to invest less in the United States, much more scrutiny. Some key American allies will be doing the same. In the wealthier European states. In Japan, for example. But the Americans are not getting coordination from allies. In part, that's about Trump. In part, that's about the way they've decided to engage in blame. Particularly the last couple days, saying this came from a lab in China and the secretary of state and President Trump saying there is conclusive evidence, strong, very strong evidence that that is the case. The Americans have shared that intelligence with key allies and the allies are saying this is all open source. There's nothing conclusive and we don't buy it. Even Australia, which can't stand the Chinese right now, getting into a big fight, not supporting the Americans. Really overplaying their hand. There's no reason why the Americans can't focus on, there was a cover up, it came from China, we're blaming the Chinese for that. But by going too far, it's like the weapons of mass destruction moment that Colin Powell, Dick Cheney, had in the Bush administration on Iraq. The Americans lose more credibility hitting the Chinese on this.
Finally, what's going on in Venezuela?
According to the Venezuelan government, there was an effort to invade and stage a coup against Mr. Maduro, that included two Americans, former Green Berets, they are saying. The Venezuelan opposition are denying. The American government is denying. We have no idea what the truth is. You can't imagine the American government saying, that was us, if that was indeed the case. But the Venezuelan government has even less credibility than the US and the opposition. It would not surprise me at all if there were a couple of Americans involved in a military incident. That doesn't mean that it was supported directly or indirectly by the US government. They could be mercenaries for hire. They could be ideologically aligned. They could be dual nationals, Venezuelans or Colombians. There's been a lot of talk, but no one in the Trump administration, now that Bolton is gone, actively interested in a military solution for Venezuela. In fact, Trump was resistant for Bolton's hard line. He was undermining Bolton both privately and publicly. So, I'm deeply skeptical of that, as I'm deeply skeptical of most things that come out of the Venezuelan government these days.