Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting in St. Petersburg.
Russian revenge vs. Ukrainian resolve
Vladimir Putin responded on Monday to Kyiv's (alleged) involvement in blowing up part of the only bridge connecting Crimea to Russia by unleashing fire and fury against Ukrainian cities.
Although some feared that attacking Crimea would push Putin to go nuclear, his retaliation was swift but conventional — and somewhat measured in terms of the actual damage done by an aggressor capable of wanton bloodshed. Also, Russia’s president blamed the blast on Ukrainian "terrorism," not the West, which means he doesn’t want to pick a direct fight with NATO.
How did we get here? Will it be a turning point in the war? And what might Putin do next?
The symbolic and strategic importance of the Kerch Strait Bridge cannot be overstated — on both sides. For Russia, it was an engineering feat that solidified its control over the peninsula Moscow annexed in 2014 and is crucial for keeping military supply lines open between Crimea and the Russian mainland. For Ukraine, it was a painful reminder of that occupation and, above all, a legitimate military target.
Indeed, even only partial damage to the rail lines on the bridge might hurt Russia's ability to move troops and equipment back and forth. The only alternative is the hard-to-traverse "land bridge" through four Ukrainian regions recently annexed by the Kremlin, which could well become the next objective for Kyiv.
Still, the airstrikes are likely a one-off tactical response to a strategic setback. Putin’s domestic audience demanded a strong retaliation to the bridge blast, says Alex Brideau, Eurasia Group's lead Russia analyst. But beyond that, he adds, the Russians need to be practical: they're running low on precision weapons and can't sustain a prolonged airstrike campaign.
Putin is signaling two things with his response. First, “that he has the situation under control, which is important for him at a time when more people in Russia are questioning that," says Brideau. Second, he’s warning the Ukrainians that he's willing to escalate further. But what that means is unclear.
"He's being ambiguous about it. He's not giving the Ukrainians something specific to to think that they shouldn't try a particular thing because Putin would respond with something even more aggressive the next time around."
Putin, Brideau adds, has spent the last few weeks scrambling to demonstrate that whatever happens in Ukraine, he knows what to do next.
"The problem is that it's not clear just how much everybody still trusts him. They're not going to overthrow him or anything. But he has more convincing that he has to do now compared to before."
For Kyiv, the attack on the bridge was certainly worth the risk. "The Ukrainian perspective about the war has really hardened, especially after Putin's recent decision to annex four Ukrainian regions," Brideau says. "They don't have a lot to lose in being very forward that their attitude is to retake territory."
That explains why Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has gone from asking for direct talks with Putin to last week signing a decree ruling out direct negotiations with him. In other words, Zelensky knows that talking to Putin is a fool's errand: the Russian leader will not accept peace without taking territory or a stable security relationship with a sovereign Ukraine.
Russia's retaliation will give Ukrainians anything but pause in their resolve to win the war, says Brideau. Don't be surprised if there’s another attack on the bridge.
Putin is mistaken if he thinks he can scare Ukraine into capitulation, says Brideau. The airstrikes are "more likely to harden the public resolve that the war needs to be won on Ukrainian terms because people are going to blame Putin long before they're going to blame Zelensky for their problems."
They might also strengthen the Western resolve to support Ukraine and stand up to Russia. Images of Russian missile attacks on civilians in Ukrainian cities will hardly encourage the Europeans to push Ukraine to sue for peace.
For Brideau, further raids will only “solidify some of the trends that have been evident throughout the war: increasing Ukrainian unity domestically and this unity that we've seen between Europe and the US and other Western countries on what to do about it."
Finally, are we now closer to what US President Joe Biden would call Armageddon or to Putin asking for an off-ramp? There's nothing to indicate that the Russian leader is now more likely to use a tactical nuclear weapon than before. If anything, Putin's language referring to the bridge blast as terrorism likely means he leans more toward conventional responses than nukes.
"The chance of Russia using a nuclear weapon remains very low,” Brideau says. “The risk is not zero, but it is very low."
This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
A view shows destroyed military vehicles on a street in the town of Bucha in the Kyiv region
What's the latest from Ukraine?
In the early hours of Friday morning, Russian troops seized control of Europe's largest nuclear plant in southeastern Ukraine. After some raised the alarm of a potential "Chernobyl moment," international monitors said the initial blaze had been extinguished, and there was no indication that radiation had spilled.
Just a day after reportedly taking the southern city of Kherson, Russian forces on Thursday encircled the strategic Black Sea port of Mariupol in the southeast. Taking this city would not only diminish Ukraine’s access to international shipping lanes, but it would also nearly complete a “land bridge” extending from mainland Russia to the Crimean peninsula. Further west, the city of Odessa, Ukraine’s largest port, readied itself for a Russian assault.
Zelensky invites Putin to sit down at a normal-sized table with him. The Ukrainian president, speaking to journalists Thursday, invited his Russian counterpart to talk things out. “I don’t bite, I’m a normal dude,” he said, “what are you afraid of?” Putin, meanwhile, delivered a stone-faced message to the Russian people claiming that everything is going to plan, praised the heroism of Russian troops fighting against “nazis,” and reiterated his belief that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people.”
Ukraine and Russia have agreed to humanitarian corridors in several areas of the country, in order to allow civilians to leave conflict zones. Already more than 1 million people have fled Ukraine, making this the worst refugee crisis involving European countries since the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s.
US-Russia hotline set up. The two sides have set up what is known as a “deconfliction hotline,” which is meant to help avoid military miscalculations that could lead to a direct confrontation between the two superpowers. A similar speed-dial was set up between them in Syria several years ago. Given that the US and Russia have the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, this is a good thing.
US expands sanctions on Russian oligarchs. Washington announced new asset freezes and travel bans on a slew of powerful Russians close to Putin. Those on the blacklist include media tycoon Alisher Usmanov, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, and several of Putin’s old judo buddies and former colleagues from his KGB days, all of whom have grown fabulously wealthy during his reign.Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukrainian actor and candidate in the upcoming presidential election, hosts a comedy show at a concert hall in Kiev, Ukraine February 22, 2019. Picture taken February 22, 2019.
What We're Watching: Ukraine laughs it all off
Ukraine's comedian cabinet. As Russia threatens to invade, Ukraine's president is looking to defend his homeland... with a bit of humor. In recent months Volodymyr Zelenskiy — who was a famous comedian before he entered politics, and even played the role of president in a TV series before his 2019 election — has hired members of his old comedy troupe to occupy top positions in his government, including intelligence chief. Zelenskiy is known to crack jokes in moments of extreme tension, and last summer mocked Vladimir Putin for writing a long essay describing Russia and Ukraine as a fraternal single nation. While supporters say Ukraine's president wants his former buddies because they'll be loyal, critics argue that the bad optics of a government being run by comedians who may be out of their depth when faced with a master political strategist like Vladimir Putin. With 100,000 Russian troops at their border, the last thing the Ukrainians need is a bad joke, or even worse an amateur mistake that Putin can use to his advantage.