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10 elections to watch in 2025
This time last year, we had you buckle up for the world’s most intense year of democracy in action, with more than 65 countries holding elections involving at least 4.2 billion people — roughly half of the world’s adult population. As we now know, many of those voters turned against incumbents in 2024 — from the United Kingdom and the United States to Botswana, Japan, and South Korea, just to name a handful.
Now, we’re spotlighting the 10 most consequential elections of 2025. While it will be a less dramatic year for democracy compared to 2024, there are important themes to track as many of the countries struggle amid increasing political polarization, anti-establishment sentiment, and economic challenges.
Here are the 10 elections to watch in 2025:
1. Belarus – Jan. 26
Voters will head to the polls in Belarus to elect a president in January. The election will be neither free nor fair. The country’s opposition warns that the election “will be an exercise in ‘self-reappointment’ of [Aleksander] Lukashenko and a staged attempt to legitimize his continued rule without genuine competition.” That’s also the view in Europe and the United States.
The main question hanging over this vote is whether it will produce mass protests similar to those that followed the country’s last sham presidential election in 2020. Members of the European Parliamentcharge that, since 2020, “Tens of thousands of peaceful protesters have been arrested and nearly 1,300 political prisoners, including opposition political figures, are still kept in Belarusian detention facilities.” Tens of thousands more have been forced to flee the country.
Though Lukashenko’s government has not sent troops into Ukraine, his government has allowed Russia to use its territory as a staging ground for attacks on Ukraine since the first day of the war in February 2022. Any election-related instability in Belarus would worry not only Lukashenko but Vladimir Putin as well.
2. Germany – Feb. 23
On Nov. 6, deep ideological differences over economic reform broke up Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition government, a development that allowed Germany, a country in economic crisis, to move up elections from September 2025 to February. A key question is whether the vote will produce a winner with a strong enough mandate to make the tough political choices needed to restore vitality to Europe’s largest economy.
But the thorny subject of immigration also hangs over the scene, especially after a Saudi Arabian national carried out a deadly mid-December terror attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg.
The far-right Alternative for Germany party has surged in recent years with an anti-immigration platform, and now polls at nearly 20%, ahead of Scholz’s Social Democrats, and second only to the conservative Christian Democratic Union. Elon Musk’s endorsement could well boost the party further.
Scholz will lead a caretaker government until the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, elects a new chancellor in April or May. If the CDU maintains its lead, party chief Friedrich Merz will probably be the next chancellor.
But once the votes are counted, can the CDU form a strong enough governing coalition to maintain its political standing in the face of populist attacks from non-traditional parties? If, like Scholz’s coalition, Merz needs two parties to join, he’ll face the same internal divisions that crippled Scholz from the beginning of his term in December 2021. And if the AfD and the far-left Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht can win more than one-third of Bundestag seats, together they can threaten a new bid to allow the German government to spend more money.
3. Australia — before May
This year, Australians will go to the polls for the first time since 2022, when the Labor Party ended nine years of dominance by the conservative Liberal Party. While in power, Labor has passed major climate legislation, deftly walked the line of preserving Australia’s deep economic ties to China while pushing back on Beijing’s regional assertiveness, and imposed a landmark, and popular, social media ban for minors.
But none of that is the main issue for Australians, which is the economy. And here the Labor Party has struggled, earning terrible marks for rising housing costs, a top concern for more than 90% of voters, according to one industry poll. A flurry of housing legislation in recent months has been too little, too late. The bad vibes extend to wage growth too, even though salaries have grown faster than inflation for the past year.
Neither Prime Minister Anthony Albanese nor his main opponent, Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton, is well-liked, meaning Australians are choosing between unpopular options. Whoever wins could easily wind up with a minority government, leaving Australians with a weak government that may be challenged to address big problems.
4. The Philippines — May 12
The last two years have seen a radical redirection of Manila’s foreign policy as President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — the son of the strongman by the same name who ruled the archipelago from 1965-1986 — moves away from China and toward its traditional ally, the US. But this shift has caused a major rift with Marcos’ predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, and it’s making the upcoming midterm election look like a dynastic knife fight.
Duterte’s daughter, Sara Duterte, is Marcos’ vice president, and relations between the two are frosty to say the least. During a November speech, she said, “This country is going to hell because we are led by a person who doesn’t know how to be a president and who is a liar,” and then addressed alleged threats to her life by seeming to suggest that she’d arrange retaliatory assassinations of her own.
She’s denied that her comments represent a threat, but she now faces three impeachment complaints — over the threats, alleged misuse of funds, and violating the constitution.
And it gets even juicier. Rodrigo Duterte himself is running for mayor of Davao City, the largest metropolis in the south, where he held office for over 20 years. It’s not a coincidence: His son is the sitting mayor there, and the hope is that having his name on the ballot will help turn out his base to fill the open senate and house seats with Duterte loyalists.
That would allow the clan to check Marcos’ actions in the second half of his term and set Sara up for a run at the top job in 2028. Marcos will be term-limited by then … but it’s rumored that his cousin, the house speaker, will succeed him.
In short, it’s like “Game of Thrones” but with better weather.
5. Bolivia – Aug. 17
Things have been … tense in the landlocked Andean state this year, thanks to a farcical, poorly organized coup attempt against sitting President Luis Arce and allegations of an assassination attempt on his mentor-turned-archrival, former President Evo Morales. Their rivalry is compounding an uncertain economic future in South America’s poorest country, which has seen its once-booming natural gas industry go belly up.
Citizens have been demonstrating against unaffordable fuel and energy prices for months, but they’re getting little help from the authorities, who are busy weaponizing the justice system against political rivals and maneuvering to control the left-wing Movement for Socialism party that dominates Bolivian politics.
Arce scored a key advantage in that fight when Bolivia’s constitutional court ruled in late 2024 that Morales was ineligible to run — but don’t count him out. Bolivia’s court system is deeply politicized, and Morales could well find a way back onto the ballot. We’re watching for the possibility that he runs as vice president with Senate leader Andrónico Rodríguez at the top of the ticket.
We’re also watching Manfred Reyes Villa, a conservative who may be able to use the split on the left to advance his own candidacy.
6. Argentina – Oct. 26
Has the pain been worth it? That, in many ways, is the most basic question on the ballot as Argentina heads into midterm elections in October for half the lower house and a third of the senate.
The “pain,” of course, is anarcho-capitalist President Javier Milei’s radical “chainsaw” policy of gutting public spending and regulations to address decades of economic mismanagement, triple-digit inflation, and chronic debt crises.
So far, Milei has proven many of the haters wrong. The economy, Latin America’s third largest, emerged from recession in late 2024. Inflation has fallen from 25% per month to less than 3%. Economists expect the economy to grow as much as 5% in 2025.
But, at the same time, the share of Argentines living in poverty has soared by more than 10 percentage points, to 53%, since he took office. There have been large protests against his spending cuts. And he has yet to take some big, and potentially painful, steps such as scrapping capital controls, which could stoke inflation again.
Milei’s small, libertarian party, La Libertad Avanza (“Liberty Advances”), currently lacks a majority in both houses, but he hopes to change that and is pleading for voters to make a “big rumble in the elections.”Heading into the new year, La Libertad Avanza was the clear front-runner in polls, with 46% saying they were ready to cast a ballot for MIlei’s party, compared to just 14% for the traditional left-wing Peronist party and 7% for the establishment right.
7. Czech Republic – before October
The ANO party of populist billionaire Andrej Babiš, who has clashed with the EU and is skeptical of support for Ukraine, looks set for a big comeback in this fall’s parliamentary elections amid broader malaise and dissatisfaction with the current center-right coalition of PM Petr Fiala.
Babiš was prime minister from 2017-2021, and in 2023 he lost the presidential election by nearly 20 points to Petr Pavel, a former NATO general who strongly backs Ukraine.
But with the current governing coalition in turmoil and “Ukraine fatigue” growing ahead of a possible push by US President-elect Donald Trump to end the war there, Czechs are in the mood for change again.
A stunning recent poll showed fewer than half of Czechs now think life has improved since the fall of communism in 1989. ANO capitalized on that disillusionment in fall 2024 regional and Senate ballots, ringing up big results even with abysmal turnout.
Heading into 2025, polls show ANO with 30% support against the governing coalition’s 20%. If Babiš wins, he would (re)join a Central European eurosceptic populist axis featuring Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s populist PM Robert Fico.
8. Tanzania – October 2025
President Samia Suluhu Hassan is expected to win reelection under the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), which has held power for six decades. She will likely face veteran politician Tundu Lissu, the current chairperson of Chadema, Tanzania’s main opposition party.
Hassan will likely tout her political reforms, including reversing some of the most authoritarian policies of her predecessor, John Magufuli, who banned political rallies, censored the media, and clamped down on opposition parties. That has empowered Hassan’s political opponents, though a shadow of the old ways persists: earlier this year two Chadema politicianswere abducted and tortured, and one of them was murdered. Three more Chadema politicianswere killed in connection with local elections in November.
Who’s watching this election? Likely China. Tanzania is the fifth-largest state in Africa, and China has been its maintrading partner for eight years. China has also funded several megaprojects, including a recently announced railway revitalization with Zambia. The CCP has a close relationship with Tanzania’s ruling party, and China runs a leadership school outside Dar Es Salaam that counsels African politicians on how to replicate China’s authoritarian model and cement one-party rule — like the CCM’s 60-year reign — in their countries.
9. Canada – before Oct. 25
Canadian law requires that its next federal election be held by Oct. 25, 2025, but it could come far sooner.
The Liberals, in power since 2015, lost their formal support from the left-leaning New Democratic Party last September, leaving them vulnerable to a no-confidence vote. On Dec. 20, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced he would trigger such a vote at the earliest opportunity – but the House of Commons is in recess until Jan. 27, 2025. That prompted Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to ask Canada’s titular head of state, Governor General Mary Simon, to bring the House back earlier – a constitutional nonstarter, as she only takes counsel from the prime minister. The Conservatives desperately want an election, as they hold a 23-point lead in the polls.
The drama followed the shock resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Dec. 16, which triggered calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation from both inside and outside his party. The calls multiplied over the ensuing days, and Trudeau is now reportedly considering his future, though he has said he is not resigning over the holiday break. Should he step down, a leadership contest and prorogation of the House of Commons would follow, meaning that an election would likely happen before October.
The main issues are inflation, immigration, and a housing shortage, overlaid with anxiety about the incoming Trump administration’s promise of up to 25% tariffs on Canadian exports to the US. Should Trudeau remain leader, many also see the vote as a referendum on his tenure — at a time when only 19% of voters think he should stay on.
10. Chile – Nov. 16
South America’s most prosperous economy has traveled a rough political road the last few years, with two consecutive efforts to reform the constitution going down in flames — and taking ruling President Gabriel Boric with them.
The young reformer has failed to advance the significant changes he promised and is prohibited constitutionally from serving another consecutive term.
But rather than major constitutional change, Chileans are eager for economic growth and a serious attempt to tackle growing drug crime and violence, which have surged in part due to the arrival of organized crime gangs from Venezuela.
We’re a long way off from the ballots, but two candidates are out ahead: former Labor Minister Evelyn Matthei, from the right-wing Independent Democratic Union, and the far-right populist José Antonio Kast. Matthei comes from a well-known political family in Santiago and has come close to the top job before. Unfortunately for her, voters around the world seem to be in an anti-establishment mood.
Kast, on the other hand, is cast in a more radical mold. His Republican party broke away from Matthei’s in 2018, in part because they wanted to be less critical of former dictator Gen. Augusto Pinochet. Kast, an ultra-conservative Catholic and nationalist who has proposed border trenches to stop illegal immigration, lost to Borić in the last election but is poised for a strong run again.
All of that leaves the left in the lurch, but former President Michelle Bachelet — still the country’s single most popular politician — could yet throw her hat in the ring to make things interesting.
Ecuadorian presidential candidate Luisa Gonzalez speaks during a presidential election night event, in Quito, Ecuador, on Aug. 20, 2023.
González leads, but a runoff looms in Ecuador
After an election marred by a high level of violence, including the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavencio, Ecuadorian voters have set the stage for a runoff between left-wing candidate Luisa González and political outsider Daniel Noboa, the scion of a major banana business. With 75% of the votes tallied, González leads Noboa 33% to 24%.
To win, a candidate needed 50% of the vote, or 40% support with a 10-point lead over their closest rival.
Should González win the runoff, the country risks remaining under the influence of disgraced former President Rafael Correa, whom González pledged to retain as an advisor. Since 2017, Correa has lived abroad in Belgium, allowing him to escape his 2020 prison sentence for corruption.
Villavicencio, a former journalist, had harshly criticized Correa and was credited with contributing to his conviction. Known for brazenly calling out corruption, organized crime, and drug traffickers, Villavicencio – who was not leading the pack when he was assassinated – was killed in a hail of bullets after a rally on Aug. 9. Six Colombian nationals have been arrested in connection with his murder.
Other politicians have also been murdered in recent months, but violence has not been limited to politics: Ecuador saw 3,568 violent deaths in the first six months of this year, a nearly 75% jump on the number of murders reported in the first half of 2022. That year ended with the highest number of violent deaths in Ecuador’s history, 4,600, double the total of the previous year – with the uptick blamed on drug trafficking and corruption.
On Sunday, some 100,000 police were dispatched to keep order on election day. A runoff vote will now be held in October. Whoever wins will face the challenge not only of reducing violence but restoring voter confidence in a shaken populace.