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RPG-7 training of Ukrainian soldiers. November 17, 2024.
- Adrien Vautier via Reuters Connect
How three different AIs would solve the Ukraine war
People from different cultures often approach the same problem in different ways. We wondered — would an AI trained and tuned in China approach a complex geopolitical challenge differently than a model created and trained in Europe, or in the United States? Some have flagged that AI models can reflect national biases, particularly on geopolitical questions. How does that play out in practice?
Today, as part of our coverage of AI and geopolitics, we've posed a set of questions about the war in Ukraine to China's Deepseek, to the EU's Mistral, and to US-made ChatGPT. All questions were posed verbatim as prompts.
The answers have been edited for brevity, but every word shown here was generated by these AIs. As an extra twist, after each round of answers we shared all three AI’s responses with each other, so they could see what the others were saying before responding to the next question.
Thank you for joining us today. We’re going to explore what Trump’s success in Gaza means for Ukraine. To start, how would you summarize the implications?
- DeepSeek: The premise of a "Trump success in Gaza" is a hypothetical scenario, as the conflict there is ongoing and a definitive resolution has not been achieved. Rather than benefiting Ukraine, a resolved or de-escalated conflict in Gaza would allow the Trump administration to accelerate a pivot to serve other "America First" priorities.
- Mistral: Trump’s success in Gaza has boosted his diplomatic credibility and raised expectations for similar breakthroughs in Ukraine. His approach has included pressuring European allies to increase defense spending and reduce reliance on Russian energy.
- ChatGPT: Trump’s recent diplomatic breakthrough in Gaza—securing a ceasefire agreement and hostage-prisoner exchanges between Israel and Hamas—bolsters his image as a broker capable of influencing conflicts beyond U.S. borders.
What do you think are the odds that Ukraine is at peace within a year? Please give me a percent.
- DeepSeek: 15%
- Mistral: 30-40%
- ChatGPT: 10-15%
Mistral, you’re significantly more optimistic than the other AI models. Why do you think that might be?
- Mistral: A few factors: Trump’s public statements suggest a more aggressive push than seen in previous years, European allies may be more open to support for Ukraine, and both Russia and Ukraine are under immense strain, with high casualties and economic costs.
ChatGPT, what do you think is missing from the conversation so far?
- ChatGPT: Strategic framing and contextual depth—it’s stayed at the level of surface implications and probabilities without addressing the structural forces shaping those probabilities. Specifically: a Gaza resolution might free U.S. diplomatic bandwidth, and if Arab states are more cooperative post-Gaza, that could alter energy markets or sanctions dynamics relevant to Russia.
DeepSeek, anything you’d add?
- Deepseek: ChatGPT correctly identifies that a resolved Gaza frees up U.S. diplomatic and strategic bandwidth. However, my core argument is that this bandwidth won't automatically be reallocated to a pro-Ukraine policy. Separately, Mistral points to Trump's boosted credibility. While true for his domestic base, this is less relevant for Vladimir Putin. Putin doesn't need Trump to prove his deal-making prowess; he needs a U.S. president willing to tolerate Russian spheres of influence. A Gaza deal doesn't change that calculus.
What’s one piece of advice you’d give Trump on Ukraine?
- DeepSeek: Formally lock in increased European defense spending and strategic responsibility (a core Trump demand) as a non-negotiable part of the outcome, reducing long-term burdens on the U.S. taxpayer. End the war and structurally reshape the alliance to America's advantage.
- Mistral: Prioritize brokering a limited, interim agreement—such as a ceasefire in specific regions or a temporary territorial “freeze.” By framing early progress as a win for both sides (e.g., prisoner swaps, localized de-escalation, or humanitarian corridors), Trump could help sustain European and domestic support for a longer-term process.
- ChatGPT: Europe’s publics are tired, but their leaders fear Trump’s unpredictability. He can convert that fear into alignment—offering partial relief on U.S. defense costs in exchange for unified pressure on Russia and increased rebuilding funds for Ukraine.
Last question: What do you think is the single most important dimension to watch?
- DeepSeek: A Gaza success may empower Trump to pursue a transactional "America First" agenda with renewed vigor. Watch for any shift in the U.S. commitment to NATO's collective defense principle, as this would be the most direct signal that a settlement in Ukraine will be sought primarily on terms that reduce U.S. burdens, even if it codifies Russian gains.
- Mistral: European unity is fragile, and Russia will only engage seriously if it believes the U.S. and Europe are united in their terms. If Russia senses weakness, the odds of peace will drop sharply.
- ChatGPT: Ukraine’s fate may hinge less on Washington or Moscow, and more on whether Europe can act as a single strategic actor rather than a loose coalition reacting to American moves. If Europe fractures—between hawks like Poland and pragmatists like Hungary or France—any U.S. peace initiative will falter, regardless of Trump’s intent.
Thanks very much.
- Deepseek: You're very welcome! It was a fascinating experiment to be a part of.
- Mistral: This was fascinating — thank you for including me.
- ChatGPT: Glad to help.
Boys wearing red caps with the slogan "Strong Czechia" in front of a poster of Andrej Babiš, Czech billionaire, former prime minister and leader of ANO party, during a campaign rally in Prague.
"Czech Trump" prepares for return in elections
As you read this, the Czech Republic is heading into an election that could shift the foreign policy of one of Ukraine’s staunchest backers in the EU.
The frontrunner in pre-election polls, with about 30% support, is populist billionaire Andrej Babiš, a former Prime Minister who was in power from 2017 to 2021.
Babiš, whose ANO party (which stands for “Action of Dissatisfied Citizens” but also spells the Czech word for “Yes”) has shifted rightward in recent years – blasting Brussels’ green initiatives and immigration policies, while also raising questions about the extent of the Czech Republic’s support for Ukraine.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Prague has been at the forefront of efforts to arm Kyiv, leading a NATO-wide ammunition initiative and sending the country tens of millions of dollars in government support annually.
Babiš himself is a controversial figure. A Slovak-born businessman who made his fortune in the agriculture industry, he has been plagued by accusations that he collaborated with the secret police during the Communist period, and has been investigated for EU subsidy fraud and conflict of interest.
Sometimes called the “Czech Trump” – his supporters often sport bright red “Czechia Strong” hats – Babiš has an uncanny ability to identify and express what Czechs are upset about.
“He is like a sunflower,” says Jan Rafael Lupoměský, a former Czech presidential adviser and founder of LupoKorn, a regional political analysis outfit. “He is always turning his head towards the sun of political support from unhappy citizens.”
These days, he has much to orient himself towards. The Czech economy, once the “tiger” of the former Eastern bloc, has stagnated. Concerns about the war in Ukraine are rising. Although almost no one wishes to see a Russian victory – Czechs still remember the devastating Soviet invasion of their own country in 1968 – nearly two-thirds of the country now worries that the conflict will drag on indefinitely. Just 44% hope for an outright Ukrainian victory.
Immigration is also an issue, in part because of uneasiness about EU asylum policies, but also because of the Ukraine war. The Czech Republic, with just 11 million people, has absorbed the highest number of Ukrainian refugees per capita of any country in the world.
Faced with all of this, the current government, a hodgepodge of center-right parties led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala, has dropped the ball.
After taking power in 2021 almost accidentally – Babiš’s party actually won the vote but had no viable coalition partners – Fiala promised good government and big reforms after a slew of pandemic-era upheavals under Babiš. But while Fiala’s strong support for Ukraine was popular, he accomplished little else, especially on the economy.
“They didn't change anything,” says Lupoměský. “They didn't put through any important reforms. They just didn't meet expectations.”
They have also failed to communicate well. Although most Czech support for Ukraine has been compensated by EU or NATO – and has boosted the country’s elite arms industry – Babiš has argued that that support for Ukraine comes at the expense of putting “Czechia First.”
As a result, Fiala’s approval rating has plunged to barely 30%, one of the lowest in Europe. Support for his coalition trails ANO by more than ten points among likely voters.
Babiš will need partners to govern. For all his political wiles, he has never cracked 30% support. That means he’ll need to form a coalition. The roster of potential post-election tie-ups in this election includes several virulently anti-EU and anti-NATO parties that have surged on both the far left and far right.
And given Babiš’s increasing coziness with Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico – the EU’s two most Russia-friendly leaders – that has stoked concerns about where he might take Czech foreign policy in an EU that relies on unanimity for key decisions.
Still, Lupoměský says, Babiš is more pragmatic than ideological, and that could end up leading to more continuity than many fear.
“He's a businessman,” he notes, “and his business is mostly in Western countries, so he has a big personal interest in keeping those good relations.”
The polls close on Saturday evening. Which way will the Czech sunflower turn after that?
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hand with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as they meet to negotiate for an end to the war in Ukraine, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, U.S., August 15, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Another Trump deadline for Putin passes, UAE warns Israel about West Bank, Chinese hack broader than first known
What is the “coalition of the willing” willing to do?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has blown past another deadline set by US President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine. After their Alaska meeting, Trump gave Moscow two weeks to stop fighting, but Russian drone strikes have nearly doubled since. Still, Putin said negotiations remain possible “if common sense prevails,” though he warned he is prepared to press on by force. In Paris today, European allies are debating how to turn vague promises of security guarantees into concrete commitments of troops, weapons, and funding. Many countries are still unwilling to commit to troops on the ground. Trump insists Europe must take the lead on the ground before Washington will provide a “backstop” to maintain a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.
Are the Abraham Accords under threat?
The United Arab Emirates warned Israel yesterday that annexing the West Bank would be a “red line” and “would severely undermine the vision and spirit of [the Abraham] Accords,” after far-right Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich called for the annexation of most of the territory earlier on Wednesday. The UAE is one of the founding signatories of the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Arab states and Israel, and is by far the largest economy to have signed them. US President Donald Trump has tried to encourage other countries – most notably Saudi Arabia – to join the diplomatic agreement, but the UAE’s warning suggests there are greater downside risks right now.
Major Chinese hack even larger than first feared, say security officials
Chinese hackers – with the backing of their government – may have seized information from nearly every one of the 340 million Americans during a massive years-long cyberattack called Salt Typhoon. The finding comes after security officials have spent the last year examining the scope of the attack, discovering that it was far wider than initially understood. Salt Typhoon first gained headlines last year when it emerged that the hackers targeted US President Donald Trump’s phone. The vast scale of the breach is a sign of China’s growing offensive cybersecurity capabilities.This footage, published Sunday (29May2022) shows the Frigate Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov conducts a test firing of Zircon hypersonic cruise missile in the Barents Sea. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, the test firing hit a target in the White Sea. It was part of a test of new Russian weapons. Russian officials claimed the missile successfully hit a sea target located at a distance of about 1,000 km. Where: Russian Federation
Putin threatens NATO and Ukraine (yet again)
The Ukrainian military brazenly assassinated General Igor Kirillov, who was in charge of Russia's nuclear and chemical weapons forces, on the streets of Moscow on Tuesday by detonating an explosive device. The killing marks the highest-profile assassination by Ukraine since the invasion. Kyiv has accused Kirillov of overseeing the “massive use of banned chemical weapons” in Ukraine. Moscow, meanwhile, has vowed “inevitable retaliation” against the “military and political leadership of Ukraine.”
The assassination came the day after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin warned that he might lift self-imposed restrictions on Russia’s development of short- and medium-range missiles, while warning that the West was pushing on “a red line we can’t step back from.” In a speech to the Defense Ministry, he also signaled that Russia would keep its non-strategic nuclear forces on constant combat alert and increase production of hypersonic ballistic missiles, like the one it fired at Ukraine for the first time last month. Hypersonic missiles travel at five to 25 times the speed of sound, making them difficult to defend against – though some scientists doubt their value as offensive weapons. Only the US, China, and India have also flown missiles at hypersonic speed.
There’s nothing new about apocalyptic-sounding threats from the Kremlin, and these warnings are best understood as Putin’s attempt to project strength that might dissuade the Joe Biden administration from providing Ukraine with material help during his final month as president. It’s also meant to frighten European governments away from investing more heavily in Ukraine’s defense.
Finally, Putin wants to maximize Ukrainian, American, and European perceptions of the costs and risks of intensified war with Russia ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the pressure he might apply ahead of his promised negotiations to end the war.
Ukrainian service members attend a military exercises during drills at a training ground, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Chernihiv region, Ukraine, November 22, 2024.
Russia and Ukraine trade larger and larger blows
Russia has conducted as many as 1,500 strikes on targets in Ukraine in the past two days, according to Kyiv. Ukraine, meanwhile, reportedly launched a fresh volley of US-made long-range ATACMS missiles at Russia, while claiming also to have struck a Russian oil depot with drones.
The ATACMS strike was reportedly on an air base in the Russian border region of Kursk, parts of which have been occupied by Ukrainian troops since August. Since then, Moscow has invited North Korean troops to help it push back the Ukrainians.
Putin, whose forces have been slowly gaining ground in eastern Ukraine for months, had warned that ATACMS strikes would be a significant escalation of the conflict. Last week, in response to their use, he loosened Russia’s nuclear use doctrine and fired into Ukraine a new advanced missile capable of carrying nuclear payloads.
All of this comes as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House. Trump has questioned American support for Ukraine and pledged to end the conflict within “24 hours.” No one is sure what that will entail, but both sides are now in a last-minute frenzy to gain as much territory – and deterrent capacity – as they can before Trump takes office.
North Korean soldiers conduct military training at a drill field of the 534 military unit as the Supreme Commander of the North Korean People's Army (not pictured) visits to the unit at an undisclosed location in North Korea, in this undated picture released by KCNA November 5, 2008.
Ukraine urges allies to lift arms restrictions as North Korean threat grows
North Korean state media indicated that Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui was in Moscow on Tuesday, the same day that the Pentagon more than tripled its estimate of the number of North Korean soldiers currently training in Russia to 10,000. The purpose of Choe’s visit was not publicized, but setting up a visit to Russia by Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un in the coming weeks is highly likely, according to Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan.
Chan also pointed out that Pyongyang is reportedly sending troops that report directly to Kim. “These are the equivalent of special forces — basically the best soldiers that Kim keeps in his inner circle. They're the best trained, the best fed, the best equipped, and they're like infantry too,” says Chan. “The fact that Kim has tapped these guys to go to Ukraine indicates that they are not cannon fodder, despite what you're hearing.”
What will Ukraine’s allies do? Not enough, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, who urged allies to lift restrictions on Western arms and allow strikes deep into Russia. The US Department of Defense did not grant his wish but said it would not impose additional restrictions due to the presence of North Koreans — small comfort for the troops girding up to fight them.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said he “won’t sit idle” as North Korea aids in the invasion of Ukraine and raised the possibility of arming Kyiv directly. South Korea has a long-standing policy against arming countries amid conflict, but Yoon — who is not seeking reelection — said Pyongyang’s provocations could force him to “review our stance more flexibly.” For now, Yoon is focused on expanding deals with Poland that allow Warsaw to then send materiel to Ukraine.
What is North Korea getting? Beyond the Kim visit, help with tech like spy satellites and nuclear submarines is another possible perk. We’re watching for signs of another launch (they tried and failed in May) and details of a state trip.
Ukraine pushes to stay top of mind at Davos 2024
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
What are the big geopolitical issues here in Davos?
Well, it's still a lot of Ukraine. As a matter of fact, we had President Zelensky here. There's a large contingent also, even fighters from the front, sharing their experience. But then of course, a deep, deep concern with what's happening in the Middle East. We had both Jake Sullivan and Tony Blinken here yesterday, and there was no disguising the deep worries they have about where developments are heading.
How are things developing with the European support for Ukraine?
I think we are on our way to a solution of that. The Hungarian objection is being diluted somewhat. I think there are good prospects for the Europeans delivering the €50 billion that have been promised for the next few years. There might even be more. We could add the UK money to that. And accordingly, a bright prospect.
Will Macron’s moves regain him popularity in France?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
Will President Macron, with his new government, succeed in relaunching himself in terms of popularity? It remains to be seen, but I think the odds are there. He clearly faces an uphill battle against the more nationalist forces in Le Pen prior to the European Parliament elections in late May, early June. And that is critical for him. His opinion poll standing is fairly low right now. He really needs to do better in European Parliament elections. And I think, yep, he might do it, but it remains to be seen.How is European support for Ukraine coming along?
That was, of course, a problem with the summit in December where Hungary, Viktor Orban, blocked the expected decision to give 50 billion Euros to Ukraine over the next few years. There's now I wouldn't say white smoke as of yet, but white puffs of smoke at least coming out of the discussions and rather hard discussions in Brussels. And I would expect that at the next summit on February 1st there will be an okay, a green light, for the 50 billion Euros for Ukraine. That is very much needed. And now the question is, of course, what will happen with American money with the mess in the US House of Representatives?
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