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U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hand with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as they meet to negotiate for an end to the war in Ukraine, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, U.S., August 15, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Another Trump deadline for Putin passes, UAE warns Israel about West Bank, Chinese hack broader than first known
What is the “coalition of the willing” willing to do?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has blown past another deadline set by US President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine. After their Alaska meeting, Trump gave Moscow two weeks to stop fighting, but Russian drone strikes have nearly doubled since. Still, Putin said negotiations remain possible “if common sense prevails,” though he warned he is prepared to press on by force. In Paris today, European allies are debating how to turn vague promises of security guarantees into concrete commitments of troops, weapons, and funding. Many countries are still unwilling to commit to troops on the ground. Trump insists Europe must take the lead on the ground before Washington will provide a “backstop” to maintain a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.
Are the Abraham Accords under threat?
The United Arab Emirates warned Israel yesterday that annexing the West Bank would be a “red line” and “would severely undermine the vision and spirit of [the Abraham] Accords,” after far-right Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich called for the annexation of most of the territory earlier on Wednesday. The UAE is one of the founding signatories of the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Arab states and Israel, and is by far the largest economy to have signed them. US President Donald Trump has tried to encourage other countries – most notably Saudi Arabia – to join the diplomatic agreement, but the UAE’s warning suggests there are greater downside risks right now.
Major Chinese hack even larger than first feared, say security officials
Chinese hackers – with the backing of their government – may have seized information from nearly every one of the 340 million Americans during a massive years-long cyberattack called Salt Typhoon. The finding comes after security officials have spent the last year examining the scope of the attack, discovering that it was far wider than initially understood. Salt Typhoon first gained headlines last year when it emerged that the hackers targeted US President Donald Trump’s phone. The vast scale of the breach is a sign of China’s growing offensive cybersecurity capabilities.This footage, published Sunday (29May2022) shows the Frigate Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov conducts a test firing of Zircon hypersonic cruise missile in the Barents Sea. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, the test firing hit a target in the White Sea. It was part of a test of new Russian weapons. Russian officials claimed the missile successfully hit a sea target located at a distance of about 1,000 km. Where: Russian Federation
Putin threatens NATO and Ukraine (yet again)
The Ukrainian military brazenly assassinated General Igor Kirillov, who was in charge of Russia's nuclear and chemical weapons forces, on the streets of Moscow on Tuesday by detonating an explosive device. The killing marks the highest-profile assassination by Ukraine since the invasion. Kyiv has accused Kirillov of overseeing the “massive use of banned chemical weapons” in Ukraine. Moscow, meanwhile, has vowed “inevitable retaliation” against the “military and political leadership of Ukraine.”
The assassination came the day after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin warned that he might lift self-imposed restrictions on Russia’s development of short- and medium-range missiles, while warning that the West was pushing on “a red line we can’t step back from.” In a speech to the Defense Ministry, he also signaled that Russia would keep its non-strategic nuclear forces on constant combat alert and increase production of hypersonic ballistic missiles, like the one it fired at Ukraine for the first time last month. Hypersonic missiles travel at five to 25 times the speed of sound, making them difficult to defend against – though some scientists doubt their value as offensive weapons. Only the US, China, and India have also flown missiles at hypersonic speed.
There’s nothing new about apocalyptic-sounding threats from the Kremlin, and these warnings are best understood as Putin’s attempt to project strength that might dissuade the Joe Biden administration from providing Ukraine with material help during his final month as president. It’s also meant to frighten European governments away from investing more heavily in Ukraine’s defense.
Finally, Putin wants to maximize Ukrainian, American, and European perceptions of the costs and risks of intensified war with Russia ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the pressure he might apply ahead of his promised negotiations to end the war.
Ukrainian service members attend a military exercises during drills at a training ground, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Chernihiv region, Ukraine, November 22, 2024.
Russia and Ukraine trade larger and larger blows
Russia has conducted as many as 1,500 strikes on targets in Ukraine in the past two days, according to Kyiv. Ukraine, meanwhile, reportedly launched a fresh volley of US-made long-range ATACMS missiles at Russia, while claiming also to have struck a Russian oil depot with drones.
The ATACMS strike was reportedly on an air base in the Russian border region of Kursk, parts of which have been occupied by Ukrainian troops since August. Since then, Moscow has invited North Korean troops to help it push back the Ukrainians.
Putin, whose forces have been slowly gaining ground in eastern Ukraine for months, had warned that ATACMS strikes would be a significant escalation of the conflict. Last week, in response to their use, he loosened Russia’s nuclear use doctrine and fired into Ukraine a new advanced missile capable of carrying nuclear payloads.
All of this comes as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House. Trump has questioned American support for Ukraine and pledged to end the conflict within “24 hours.” No one is sure what that will entail, but both sides are now in a last-minute frenzy to gain as much territory – and deterrent capacity – as they can before Trump takes office.
North Korean soldiers conduct military training at a drill field of the 534 military unit as the Supreme Commander of the North Korean People's Army (not pictured) visits to the unit at an undisclosed location in North Korea, in this undated picture released by KCNA November 5, 2008.
Ukraine urges allies to lift arms restrictions as North Korean threat grows
North Korean state media indicated that Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui was in Moscow on Tuesday, the same day that the Pentagon more than tripled its estimate of the number of North Korean soldiers currently training in Russia to 10,000. The purpose of Choe’s visit was not publicized, but setting up a visit to Russia by Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un in the coming weeks is highly likely, according to Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan.
Chan also pointed out that Pyongyang is reportedly sending troops that report directly to Kim. “These are the equivalent of special forces — basically the best soldiers that Kim keeps in his inner circle. They're the best trained, the best fed, the best equipped, and they're like infantry too,” says Chan. “The fact that Kim has tapped these guys to go to Ukraine indicates that they are not cannon fodder, despite what you're hearing.”
What will Ukraine’s allies do? Not enough, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, who urged allies to lift restrictions on Western arms and allow strikes deep into Russia. The US Department of Defense did not grant his wish but said it would not impose additional restrictions due to the presence of North Koreans — small comfort for the troops girding up to fight them.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said he “won’t sit idle” as North Korea aids in the invasion of Ukraine and raised the possibility of arming Kyiv directly. South Korea has a long-standing policy against arming countries amid conflict, but Yoon — who is not seeking reelection — said Pyongyang’s provocations could force him to “review our stance more flexibly.” For now, Yoon is focused on expanding deals with Poland that allow Warsaw to then send materiel to Ukraine.
What is North Korea getting? Beyond the Kim visit, help with tech like spy satellites and nuclear submarines is another possible perk. We’re watching for signs of another launch (they tried and failed in May) and details of a state trip.
Ukraine pushes to stay top of mind at Davos 2024
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
What are the big geopolitical issues here in Davos?
Well, it's still a lot of Ukraine. As a matter of fact, we had President Zelensky here. There's a large contingent also, even fighters from the front, sharing their experience. But then of course, a deep, deep concern with what's happening in the Middle East. We had both Jake Sullivan and Tony Blinken here yesterday, and there was no disguising the deep worries they have about where developments are heading.
How are things developing with the European support for Ukraine?
I think we are on our way to a solution of that. The Hungarian objection is being diluted somewhat. I think there are good prospects for the Europeans delivering the €50 billion that have been promised for the next few years. There might even be more. We could add the UK money to that. And accordingly, a bright prospect.
Will Macron’s moves regain him popularity in France?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
Will President Macron, with his new government, succeed in relaunching himself in terms of popularity? It remains to be seen, but I think the odds are there. He clearly faces an uphill battle against the more nationalist forces in Le Pen prior to the European Parliament elections in late May, early June. And that is critical for him. His opinion poll standing is fairly low right now. He really needs to do better in European Parliament elections. And I think, yep, he might do it, but it remains to be seen.How is European support for Ukraine coming along?
That was, of course, a problem with the summit in December where Hungary, Viktor Orban, blocked the expected decision to give 50 billion Euros to Ukraine over the next few years. There's now I wouldn't say white smoke as of yet, but white puffs of smoke at least coming out of the discussions and rather hard discussions in Brussels. And I would expect that at the next summit on February 1st there will be an okay, a green light, for the 50 billion Euros for Ukraine. That is very much needed. And now the question is, of course, what will happen with American money with the mess in the US House of Representatives?
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Europe's big political stories to watch in 2024
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
What are the big political stories in Europe 2024?
Well, obviously the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the possibility of supporting Ukraine in its fight for its independence, freedom of sovereignty, is going to be the dominant story.
But apart from that, the election to the European Parliament happening in early summer, that's going to be enormously important, both because it will show the respective strengths of the different political forces in Europe. I would expect the center-right EPP to remain as the dominant force in the European Parliament, but that remains to be seen. And that is of course the beginning of the process of appointing all of the new personalities that will dominate the European Union in the coming five years. President of the European Council, president of the Commission, high representative for foreign and security affairs, president of the European Parliament, all of the commissioners, all will be decided during the month immediately after the election, based on that particular result.
Then, of course, an election in the United Kingdom, which is highly likely to produce a new government. And then perhaps the possibility, with a new commission and a new government in London, a more constructive relationship across the channel between Brussels and London. And I think that might be highly needed, as the country that I'm at the moment in is also having an election in November, and that might produce an outcome which might be highly problematic from several points of view. And Europe has to be ready
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President Joe Biden Welcomes President Zelensky Of Ukraine To The White House United States President Joe Biden and first lady Dr. Jill Biden welcome President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine to the White House in Washington, DC, Dec. 21, 2022
Zelensky coming to the White House
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit President Biden in Washington and meet with Congressional leaders next week. The visit will follow his in-person address to the United Nations in New York, and marks his second trip to D.C.
Will Zelensky’s visit help the impasse on Ukraine aid? Congress is in the midst of hashing out federal spending and Republicans are pushing for considerable cuts to the federal budget. That threatens the $13 billion in military aid and $8 billion in humanitarian funds Biden has requested for Ukraine.
During his previous address to Congress, Zelensky urged Americans to view their contributions to Ukraine’s fight as an “investment” in democracy and global security. But with election season heating up and Ukraine skepticism growing on the MAGA right, it may be a harder sell this time around.