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Dutch far-right politician and leader of the Freedom Party Geert Wilders gestures as he meets with party members after the parliamentary elections in The Hague, Netherlands, on Nov. 23, 2023.
Dutch voters take hard-right turn: Will more of the EU follow?
Wilders has long promoted anti-Muslim policies, including a ban on Islamic schools, Qurans, mosques, and the wearing of hijab inside government buildings. Wilders has now tempered these pledges, saying he will “continue to moderate” his policies as coalition talks resume on Monday.
Wilders’ Freedom Party is expected to obtain 37 seats in the 150-seat Parliament, which falls short of the 76 needed under the Netherlands’ proportional representation system to secure a majority of seats. He must cement alliances with enough other parties to do so, and his dance card includes the center-right New Social Contract Party, with 20 seats, as well as the right-leaning People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, aka VVV, which formed the previous government, now with 24 seats.
Outgoing VVV Prime Minister Mark Rutte says he will not join Wilders’ coalition but could back a “centre-right” government. NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt said he could not enter a coalition with Wilders unless he recanted the Quran and mosque ban. And Wilders wants to cut EU funding and promised a referendum on membership, while Omtzigt opposes a “Nexit.”
Meanwhile, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán toasted Wilder’s win, saying “The winds of change are here!” Far-right Flemish independence leader Tom Van Grieken, who is leading in the polls for Belgium’s June 2024 elections, also congratulated Wilders, saying “Parties like ours are on their way in the whole of Europe.”
But perhaps the most significant beneficiary could be Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right Rassemblement National, who also cheered Wilders’ victory. Rassemblement National is leading opinion polls in France for next June’s elections to the European Parliament, with 28% of the vote compared to 19% for French President Emmanuel Macron’s party and its allies. A shift to the right could reverse the EU’s stand on policies related to climate action, EU reform, and weapons for Ukraine, while also impacting migration policies.
Dutch politician Geert Wilders, the leader of the PVV party, speaks during the final debate between the lead candidates in the Dutch election before polls open on Wednesday, in The Hague, Netherlands, November 21, 2023.
Netherlands votes for first new PM in 13 years
The Dutch head to the polls tomorrow to elect their first new prime minister in over a decade. The election has centered on immigration, living standards, climate change, and how conservative the next government will be.
The election was called after outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s center-right government imploded over how to reduce the flow of migrants to the Netherlands – a polarizing issue collapsing centrist coalitions across Europe.
A majority of voters support right-leaning parties. Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party, or PVV, made last-minute gains to take a lead the polls. Wilders has built his career on barring Muslim asylum-seekers from the Netherlands, and his rhetoric has gained traction since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius – another frontrunner from the current PM’s party – is also running on reducing immigration in order to limit the war’s security risks to European countries.
The results are still too close to call. As of this week, 63% of voters remained undecided. Left-wing parties are urging their supporters to strategically vote centrist to block a PVV-led government. Accordingly, Wilders moderated his stances in the last debate, which may have contributed to his last-minute gains.
But the real fun starts after the votes are counted: None of the candidates are expected to get more than 20% of the vote, so the parties must decide what compromises they are willing to make to form a government.
If a hard right coalition is formed, they would seek to radically restrict immigration. A centrist government would follow through on the previous government's plans to increase social spending and renewable energy. A left-wing coalition, meanwhile, would raise taxes on the wealthy and supercharge the adoption of the EU’s green deal that its likely leader, Frans Timmermans, spearheaded as EU climate commissioner.