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Taiwan's then-Vice President William Lai at a news conference in Taipei, in January 2023.
Taiwan signals arms buildup in attempt to impress Trump
Less than a week after Trump’s US election victory, Taiwanese officials have publicly floated a plan to spend billions on US-made weapons and weapons systems, including F-35 fighter jets, retired US warships, an airborne radar defense system, and hundreds of Patriot missiles. The goal is to persuade China that an invasion of the island would come at an unacceptably high military, material, and political cost for Beijing.
Trump is widely expected to again turn up the heat in US relations with China, particularly on trade issues, right after his inauguration in January. Officials in the government of Taiwanese President William Lai hope that Trump will find arms sales to their country useful as a way of maximizing pressure on Beijing. And even if US-China relations eventually improve, Taiwan will have already upgraded its defense capabilities.
Hard Numbers: China launches Taiwan drills, Former Scottish leader dies, Sudanese military kills civilians, Ukraine raids bars for holdouts
125: China launched major military drills around Taiwan on Monday, including a single-day record of 125 aircraft, an aircraft carrier, and other naval assets, in response to Taiwanese President William Lai's National Day speech framing Taiwan as a separate country from China. In addition to the drills, Beijing is threatening to impose further economic sanctions on the island it considers a breakaway province.
69: Former Scottish First Minister Alex Salmonddied at age 69 on Saturday, shortly after giving a speech in North Macedonia. Salmond, who is believe to have succumbed to a massive heart attack, was a heavyweight in Edinburgh for three decades, having led the Scottish National Party to become a dominant force and pressed for independence after the reestablishment of the Scottish Parliament in 1999.
23: At least 23 Sudanese civilians died this weekend after armed forces struck a market in the capital Khartoum, where it recently launched an offensive to dislodge the rebel Rapid Support Forces. More than 25 million people — half of Sudan’s population — are in severe need of food and medicine as the ongoing civil war has no end in sight.
25-60: Ukrainian authorities have reportedly begun raiding bars and concert venues looking for men aged 25-60 who have not complied with conscription laws. Ukraine is facing a severe manpower shortage and is intensifying efforts to find and induct able-bodied soldiers to hold the line against Russia’s superior manpower reserves.Taiwan President Lai Ching-te delivers a speech at the Presidential Palace during the Taiwan National Day (Double Ten) celebration at the Presidential Palace in Taipei on October 10, 2024.
Taiwan’s president flexes independence in National Day speech
Taiwanese President William Lai on Thursday took a shot at mainland China’s claims of sovereignty over self-governing Taiwan, saying, “The People’s Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan.” The remarks, delivered in a closely watched speech marking the 113th anniversary of the revolution that founded the Republic of China (Taiwan’s formal name), won’t sit well with Beijing.
The People’s Republic of China maintains the so-called “One China” policy and sees democratic Taiwan as a rebellious province that will eventually be reunified with the mainland. The only question, from Beijing’s perspective, is whether that happens militarily or politically, and rhetoric like Lai’s seems to make the window for a peaceful resolution even smaller.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly ordered his military to be prepared to retake Taiwan by 2027, although that doesn’t mean he will actually attack that year. Some members of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang Party, including former President Ma Ying-jeou, worry that Lai is endangering Taiwan by antagonizing China.
In response to Lai’s speech, Taiwanese officials expect China to conduct military drills around the island — a demonstration large enough to show Beijing’s displeasure with Lai’s statements. However, China’s economic malaise is occupying much of the leadership’s focus, and the odds of seeing more provocative military measures are low.
Lai Ching-te attends an inaugural ceremony as president of Taiwan in Taipei, Taiwan on May 20, 2024.
William Lai takes the reins in Taiwan
The Democratic Progressive Party’s William Lai was inaugurated as Taiwan’s 8th president on Monday. His pro-independence inclinations cause consternation across the Strait, but Beijing’s domestic position and relations with the United States make discretion the better part of valor for the moment.
Lai is expected to follow his predecessor Tsai Ying-wen’s policies closely, given he served as her VP. That means pursuing closer ties with the United States where he can, and building up deterrent capacity against a Chinese invasion without provoking Beijing — much easier said than done.
In the short term, however, China isn’t likely to cross any rubicons. The foreign ministry's response to Lai’s inauguration message was pretty tame, just an insistence that "Taiwan independence is destined to fail," because Beijing has its eye on the US relationship. Both Washington and Beijing have committedly pursued stabilization of relations over the past year and change, with some good progress to show for it. No point in risking all that to show Lai how much they dislike him (he’s well aware!), particularly with a lackluster economy to worry about as well.
Taiwan honour guards march in front of a statue of Chinese Nationalist Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek at a changing of the guards ceremony on October 27, 2003. Chiang's widow, Soong May-ling, died aged 106 in New York last week. Family members are considering whether to bury the former first lady in the United States, Taiwan or China.
Why Taiwan struggles to move past Chiang Kai-shek’s legacy
Taiwan’s government has pledged accelerate efforts to remove over 700 statues of Chiang Kai-shek, the former leader responsible for Taiwan’s independence and decades of authoritarian rule.
Odd as it may sound to play down the country’s founding figure, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party sees removing the statues as a way to move symbolically beyond its painful past. The opposition Kuomintang or KMT – Chiang’s old party – is fighting to keep his image in places of prominence, particularly military institutions, and it’s not an idle debate: Chiang’s memory ties Taiwan’s political discourse to the mainland, and how the government treats his memorials resonates in Beijing.
The young warlord. Chiang rose to prominence in the chaos that followed the collapse of the Qing Dynasty in 1911. The KMT formed a provisional government but was quickly forced to hand power to Gen. Yuan Shikai, who soon died.
Powerful men carved out fiefdoms for themselves, while what remained of the KMT reorganized itself in the far southern city of Guangdong under its leader Sun Yat-sen. Chiang, who had served in the Imperial Japanese Army, took command of the KMT’s military academy in Whampoa in 1924. He and Sun saw military strength as the only avenue to reunite China and build a modern nation.
Backed by Soviet military advisors and bolstered in number by an alliance with the Chinese Communist Party, KMT forces trained for two years to strike northward. On the eve of war, however, Sun died. Chiang seized control and launched a bloody invasion of central and eastern China in July of 1926. By April of 1927, Chiang's forces had taken Shanghai, with approximately 700,000 people dead.
Rivalry with the Communists. With Shanghai secured, Chiang turned on his erstwhile allies and killed thousands of communists and suspected sympathizers.
Though the KMT would go on to take Beijing and nominally unify China in 1928, this so-called “Shanghai massacre” had effectively launched the country into another civil war. A young Mao Zedongretreated into the mountains of Jiangxi province to launch guerrilla attacks against the KMT, and the Northern Expedition did little to end warlordism.
Japanese ambitions. Across the Yellow Sea, Tokyo eyed Chiang’s unification efforts with unease. Japan had preyed upon China’s weakness to wrest away control of Taiwan in 1895 and Korea in 1905, and it controlled significant economic interests in the northern region of Manchuria. Just as the KMT began to find serious success in 1931, Japan invaded Manchuria.
Chiang offered little resistance and focused instead on purging the communists. By 1934, he had eliminated some 90% of their fighting strength, but Mao fled to the northwest on his Long March, where he re-established a base of operations in October 1935.
By then, Chiang’s subordinates had had enough. They launched a conspiracy to kidnap him in the city of Xi’an in late 1936 and forced him to agree to an anti-Japanese alliance with Mao. Months later, Japanese forces launched a full invasion of China.
Saved by Uncle Sam. Tokyo rapidly secured key coastal cities and pushed Chiang west into the mountains. President Franklin Roosevelt was alarmed but constrained by a US public that wanted no part in an overseas war, so he could only offer economic and political support to Chiang.
Part of that support included an oil embargo against Japan, which contributed to Tokyo’s ill-fated decision to launch surprise attacks against Pearl Harbor, Manila, and Hong Kong on Dec. 7, 1941. The US began sending Chiang billions of dollars of aid, and troops to fight in Burma in a costly effort to keep supply lines open. Chiang allegedly stole staggering quantities of this aid, leading US Gen. Joseph Stilwell to give him the nickname “Cash My Check.”
Downfall and flight. While KMT and allied troops were fighting a bloody but largely ineffective campaign against Japan, Mao and his communists were gathering strength for the wars to come. After the Japanese surrender in 1945, the US dispatched Gen. George Marshall to build a unity government between Mao and Chiang, but the two sides were in open warfare by 1947.
President Harry Truman was not ready to support the unpopular and corrupt Chiang, and the KMT’s forces quickly melted. On Dec. 7, 1949, Chiang evacuated his government to Taiwan, where he intended to regroup and launch a reconquest of the mainland.
A new identity? In Taiwan, Chiang imposed martial law and began a strategy of economic development to build a capable military-industrial base. He was joined by around two million nationalist troops, and around a million civilians fled the mainland between 1949 and 1955.
These new arrivals known as waishengren coalesced into a distinct — and privileged — Mandarin-speaking social class. They formed the core of Chiang’s government and economic reform strategy, in contrast to the majority Minnan- and Hakka-speaking indigenous population of Taiwan, who had few ties across the strait and suffered more under military rule.
But Chiang never came close to reconquering China, and as the country moved toward democratization following his death in 1975, intense debate has centered on Taiwan’s relationship to the mainland. Those with ties to Chiang’s government in the KMT see Taiwan as indelibly linked to China, even if they’ll never take back the mainland. Beijing sees the KMT as more sympathetic and pliable toward peaceful reunification because of that affinity.
Members of the ruling DPP party, including president-elect William Lai, on the other hand, sometimes question whether Taiwan would be better off essentially declaring itself not China, and downplaying links with Chinese nationalist figures like Chiang. Beijing doesn’t see a way to negotiate a peaceful integration with leaders who don’t share Chiang’s view of a China that includes Taiwan as an integral part, which is why the symbolism of removing statues of Chiang will have real-world consequences.FILE PHOTO: Chinese President Xi Jinping waves as he walks with U.S. President Joe Biden at Filoli estate on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Woodside, California, U.S., November 15, 2023.
Biden and Xi catch up
US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke for nearly two hours on Tuesday, in a wide-ranging conversation meant, as one senior official put it, to serve as a “check-in.” Both men agreed to periodic phone calls when they met last year in San Francisco in a bid to boost dialogue and stabilize relations.
So far, Washington and Beijing have avoided any major flare-up, but Biden and Xi had no shortage of risks and gripes to discuss. Biden emphasized his commitment to the status quo over Taiwan and urged Xi to respect freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, where Chinese and Filipino vessels have had tense confrontations recently. He also expressed concern about China’s support for Russia’s military-industrial base. Xi, meanwhile, criticized “endless” US sanctions on the tech sector in an attempt to restrict Chinese access to militarily sensitive gear.
It wasn’t all complaints. The two leaders discussed recent progress on military-to-military communications, fentanyl trafficking, climate policy, and artificial intelligence, among other items. Cooperation on those less sensitive issues helps ease pressure on more intractable ones.
What’s next? The call comes just ahead of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s expected visit to China. Given Xi’s complaints today, she might be in for a less-than-relaxing trip, as she’s expected to press Beijing harder on “unfair” trade practices.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will also travel to China in the coming weeks. And we have our eye on the inauguration of Taiwanese President William Lai next month, when a vigorous Chinese display of strength could test relations with Washington, which would face pressure to back up Taipei.FILE PHOTO: Donald Trump dancing during the campaign rally for the Republican primary for the 2024 American presidential election. Manchester (NH), USA, January 20, 2024.
For China, Russia, and Israel, patience is a virtue in 2024
In January, Taiwan elected pro-independence candidate William Lai and, despite warnings, China’s response has been restrained, possibly influenced by Beijing’s belief that the leading US presidential candidate may treat Taiwan like a “discarded chess piece.”
That’s what Chinese Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said would happen if Donald Trump won the US election in November after the former president refused to say whether he would defend Taiwan. His comments shook US ally Japan strongly enough that senior Kishida administration officials are reportedly contacting Trump’s camp to warn against cutting any kind of deal with China.
The view from China: The prospect of a friendlier – or at least more transactional – US administration might be good news for cross-strait relations in the short term. There's no point in rocking the boat in a way that might hurt either Trump’s prospects or what trust Beijing has built with the Biden administration over the last year (Joe Biden, after all, could win too).
Beijing isn’t alone in recognizing that a little patience could pay big dividends after November. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Israeli far-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir said Israel would have carte blanche under Trump 2.0.
“Instead of giving us his full backing, Biden is busy with humanitarian aid and fuel, which goes to Hamas,” he said. “If Trump [were] in power, the US conduct would be completely different.”
The view from the Kremlin is just as rosy. Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul has been arguing for months that Vladimir Putin is waiting for Trump to be re-elected to sue for peace in Ukraine because of how destabilizing another dose of Trump will be to NATO. Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daaldermade a similar argument last week. And Trump did tell European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, “By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO” in 2020.
GZERO also has its eye on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He and Trump left it in a bad place after their whirlwind romance in 2018 … but who knows what another love letter might spark?
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan attends a session during the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 16, 2024.
US and China set up back-channel meetings as pressure over Yemen grows
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will reportedly meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi behind closed doors in the coming days to discuss the Middle East and Taiwan.
Several top-level meetings had already been on the public schedule, but this private format – previously used to set the stage for the 2023 Biden-Xi summit as well as to smooth things over after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan – allows a more candid exchange on sensitive issues.
Taiwan on the agenda. The meeting comes just one month after pro-independence candidate William Lai won the Taiwanese presidential elections. As such, it’s a chance for Washington and Beijing – which considers Taiwan to be part of China – to speak frankly about boundaries over the self-governing island, minimizing risks to the stability of the US-China relationship.
But the Houthi issue may be more pressing, as the Iran-backed rebel group’s attacks on Red Sea are posing a broader risk to the global economy. Some 15% of global trade normally passes through the Red Sea, including crucial cargoes of oil, natural gas, and grains. Ships forced to take the 4,000-mile longer alternate route around the Cape of Good Hope add about 10 days time and triple the cost of shipping, raising prices for the producers and consumers who rely on those goods.
The US, which has pounded Houthi positions with airstrikes, has also been asking Beijing to use its good offices with Iran to ask Tehran to restrain the Houthis. Beijing’s reaction has essentially amounted to “sinking ships is bad, but you’re on your own, pal.” In part that may be because the Houthis have promised not to attack Chinese ships, a pledge that some Chinese shipping companies are capitalizing on. Still, if the Red Sea choke-out starts to have wider effects on the global economy, China – still nursing a slow post-pandemic recovery – may start to see things differently.