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What Sinwar's death means for the war in Gaza
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
BRICS Summit: A "new world order" or already a relic of the past?
Neither. It's in Kazan in Russia. So, I mean, the big issue is that the fact that Putin is hosting it hasn't stopped people from showing up, and that says a lot about the state of the non-West. If you're not in the G7, you're still finding ways to work with the Russians, and that's not going to change anytime soon. But it is not an alternative to the G7. It's a large grouping, and they have different political, different economic systems. They want to work with everybody. So we're not heading towards a new Cold War, at least not in terms of the big global architecture.
Is Sinwar's death the beginning of the end of the war in Gaza?
I think it is in terms of Israel's military fighting, because they've killed the leadership, they've blown up the tunnels, they've found the arms caches. I mean, there's not much else for them to do. But I mean, the war from the Palestinian perspective is just beginning. They are utterly devastated. They have no ability to have a future for themselves or their kids, and they are going to be fighting for generations. So right now, it doesn't matter much to Israel because they're massively asymmetrically powerful from a military perspective, but long-term this is not something that we're going to be able to forget about.
Yankees versus Shohei Ohtani, I mean Dodgers. Who's winning?
Well, I mean, that is funny of course, because here in Japan everyone has Ohtani fever. You cannot avoid it everywhere you walk. It is pretty exciting. They are the two teams that I wanted to see in the World Series, and I think it's going to be a fascinating week and a half or whatever it is. And I wish... I mean, I tend to root for the Red Sox, which means not rooting for the Yankees. That means I kind of want the Dodgers to win. But at the end of the day, I love sports because a minute after the game is over, I am no longer super excited. And I wish that could be the way that politics work.
Anyway, be good and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Yahya Sinwar, head of the Palestinian Islamic movement Hamas in the Gaza Strip, waves his hand to the crowd during the celebration of International Quds Day in Gaza City. Iran's leader delivered a historic address to the Palestinian people of Gaza, telling them to stick up to the fighting against Israel in a speech that reflected his country's support for the territory's ruling Hamas militant group. Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day, is a commemorative day in support of the Palestinian people held annually on the last Friday of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan by an initiative started by the late founder of the Islamic Republic in Iran.
Can Gaza truce talks survive Hamas’s new political appointee?
Hamas has named Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind behind the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, its new political leader. Sinwar replaces Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week. By tapping Sinwar, the militant group is moving in an even more hardline direction, raising doubts about a possible cease-fire.
Who is Sinwar? While Haniyeh was considered relatively moderate and open to diplomacy, Sinwar is known as uncompromising, ruthless, and violent. He, along with Mohammed Deif – who Israel claims to have killed – worked to build up the armed wing of Hamas. Believed to be hiding in the underground tunnel network in Gaza, Sinwar was already one of the most influential Hamas figures — and now he has full control over the military and political decisions of Hamas, as well as the fate of Israeli hostages.
Where does this leave negotiations? Even before Haniyeh’s death, any cease-fire agreement required Sinwar’s consent. This has reportedly delayed the process at times, as Sinwar is being actively hunted by Israel and reportedly refuses to use electronic communications (to avoid being found) — making it difficult for him to communicate with negotiators. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has been pushing hard for a truce, on Tuesday emphasized that Sinwar has had the final word over a truce deal “for some time.”
Sinwar demands that hundreds of Palestinian prisoners be released and that Israel withdraw fully from Gaza. But he also reportedly wants a permanent cease-fire that secures a historic victory for Hamas. Now that Sinwar has even more power, it gives him an opening to dig in further – to deny Israel a chance to claim victory.
Sinwar’s appointment could also see Israel become less open to reaching a cease-fire, given that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — who has vowed to destroy Hamas — refers to him as a “dead man walking.” But the Israeli leader is also facing intense domestic pressure to secure the release of the hostages.
We’ll be watching to see how Sinwar’s appointment impacts talks after months of failed efforts by international mediators.