Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
President Joe Biden Welcomes President Zelensky Of Ukraine To The White House United States President Joe Biden and first lady Dr. Jill Biden welcome President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine to the White House in Washington, DC, Dec. 21, 2022
Zelensky coming to the White House
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit President Biden in Washington and meet with Congressional leaders next week. The visit will follow his in-person address to the United Nations in New York, and marks his second trip to D.C.
Will Zelensky’s visit help the impasse on Ukraine aid? Congress is in the midst of hashing out federal spending and Republicans are pushing for considerable cuts to the federal budget. That threatens the $13 billion in military aid and $8 billion in humanitarian funds Biden has requested for Ukraine.
During his previous address to Congress, Zelensky urged Americans to view their contributions to Ukraine’s fight as an “investment” in democracy and global security. But with election season heating up and Ukraine skepticism growing on the MAGA right, it may be a harder sell this time around.Joseph R. Biden, Jr., President of the United States of America, addresses the 77th session of the General Assembly at the United Nations headquarters, September 21, 2022.
What to watch at the UN General Assembly
New Yorkers, get ready for terrible traffic, because the big show is in town.
World leaders are about to start pouring in for the United Nations General Assembly’s high-level session, the annual global event where leaders from countries great and small gather to have their say about the world’s toughest issues. (Though sometimes they use the moment to suggest the US president is Satan or to share their views on the JFK assassination).
The sleek mid-century modern architecture, massive cubist murals, and vast diversity on display can give the event a bit of a sci-fi vibe, but the scale of problems makes it hard to feel Star Trek-esque techno-optimism. Here’s a quick breakdown of the biggest issues for this “UNGA” as politics nerds call it:
The War in Ukraine and Global Hunger. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed he will speak in person in New York. Also in likely attendance: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. There’s sure to be some careful choreography to prevent a spontaneous meeting, but the UN also wants to bring the two sides together to renew the Black Sea grain export deal, which Russia ditched back in July.
When Russia pulled out it put severe pressure on food prices, particularly for low-income countries in Africa that rely on Ukrainian grain. It doesn’t help that the World Food Program is suffering a budget shortfall that could force it to cut food aid to 24 million people — forcing the world into a “doom loop” of hunger.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer he would continue leading talks with Turkey, Russia and Ukraine to revive the deal, but set expectations low in the short term.
Sustainable Development Goals in rough shape. Way back in the halcyon days of 2015, every single UN member state agreed to a set of 17 development benchmarks to achieve by 2030 that would help fight climate change while also fostering economic growth. Halfway to the deadline, the UN’s own report on the progress paints a bleak picture.
Progress on half of the targets is insufficient, and another 30% have stalled or even regressed. The number of people living in extreme poverty, for example, is rising for the first time in a generation and is on track to reach 575 million by 2030.
Secretary-General Guterres said that fixing this is UNGA’s “most important objective,” but not everyone is convinced about the U.N.’s credibility on climate. Former U.S. Vice President and climate activist Al Gore tore into what he called the “capture” of UN negotiations on climate change by the fossil fuel industry. You can see Gore’s point: The United Nations’ next big climate change conference will be held in Dubai, led by oil magnate Sultan Al-Jaber.
Can the Security Council be fixed? Probably not. There will be lots of talk about updating the Security Council’s membership to reflect the world as it is in 2023, rather than as it was at the end of World War Two, when it was created.
U.S. President Joe Biden expressed support for reforming the body last year, possibly adding countries like Brazil, India, and Japan to reflect their importance in world affairs.
There is precedent for expanding the council, as 4 non-permanent seats were added in 1965. The issue with any attempt to reform is the same, though: any permanent member can veto any resolution before the council. Should Russia or China feel adding a member would be against their best interest — and if China’s rivals India and Japan are in play, they likely would — the whole thing gets squashed.
Where’s Xi Jinping? The Chinese President, Xi Jinping, won’t attend, and neither, reportedly, will his top diplomat Wang Yi. Instead, China is sending Vice President Han Zheng, whose role is mostly ceremonial.
That could complicate US hopes to firm up details about hosting a Biden-Xi summit later this year. It also hints at some possible rudderlessness behind the scenes in China’s foreign ministry following the disappearance and public dismissal of former Foreign Minister Qin Gang.
The upshot: Hope never dies. Corralling nearly two hundred countries toward consensus on any given subject, much less ones as thorny as climate change and the invasion of Ukraine, is a daunting and often thankless challenge — but one that would be all the harder without multilateral fora like the United Nations.
Ahead of the gathering, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed cautious determination in his interview with Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer.
“Hope is the thing that never dies, but it will not be easy,” he said. “We are in an era of escalation, not an area of easy solution.”
Kyiv likely to fall as Russians escalate war on Ukraine
As Russian troops approach Kyiv, what will happen if it falls? How has the West reacted to Lavrov's UN speech? Will Taiwan be the next Ukraine? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
First, as Russian troops approach Kyiv, what will happen if it falls?
I think it's increasingly what will happen when it falls. I hate to say that. Unless the Russians lay down arms in large numbers because they don't want to fire on their brothers and sisters, the Ukrainians, which is possible and I hold out hope. But it doesn't look very likely thus far. The Russian force will overwhelm the Ukrainians as it is buried upon Kyiv. Look, what's going to happen is you're going to get a government in exile that will either be in the west of Ukraine conceivably, but that's a rump Ukraine that I can't imagine the Russians want, or they move to another country, Poland, maybe France.
Then we have a proxy war going on where the West is continuing to provide weapons going to partisans on the ground in Ukraine. This does not get better. This is a full economic decoupling from Russia with Europe and the United States. This is massive economic damage to the Russian economy, the Belarusian economy, of course the Ukrainian economy too. The Russians don't seem thus far to be backing down. I can't see any room for rebuilding the relationship or for negotiations to be successful. Hold out hope. They had yesterday, again, five hours of talks. But so far, everything we see on the ground is that the Russians are only escalating at this point. That means only very bad things for the Ukrainian people.
How has the West reacted to Lavrov's UN speech?
We're talking about Foreign Minister Lavrov, Sergey Lavrov, who is no stranger to the United Nations. He was ambassador to the UN for Russia for about a decade and was one of the most effective ambassadors on the ground in the UN. Everyone had respect for him, even if they didn't like him. But that is not true anymore. A large majority, I don't have the exact numbers, but a large majority of everyone attending in the United Nations walked out as Lavrov began the speech because, of course, this government is increasingly perceived as one of war criminals by advanced industrial democracies and even many poorer democracies around the world.
The Chinese as well increasingly publicly saying that they're deeply unhappy with the invasion of Ukraine, and they want to see a cease fire and the Russian troops leave. This is very far from where the Russians and the Chinese were back when Putin just three, four weeks ago was in Beijing signing this big new friendship agreement with Xi Jinping. The Russians have lost not just a lot of enemies and made them much more hostile, but they've also lost, or at least weakened, a lot of their friendships.
Will Taiwan be the next Ukraine?
The answer is no. Interesting, a bunch of friends of mine are presently in Taiwan on a mission sent by the Biden administration, Republicans and Democrats, to show the Taiwanese that the Americans are committed. But more importantly, given what I just said about China, Chinese are not looking to be seen as opportunists taking advantage of this crisis, because if that were the case, they would be seen as on the Russian side of an emerging, evolving second Cold War. Absolutely not where the Chinese are right now. So I actually feel that Taiwan is ... I wouldn't say comfortable, I wouldn't say sitting pretty because long term, the power imbalance away from Taiwan is very clearly in Beijing's favor. But on the back of this invasion in Ukraine, I'd be stunned to see an intervention that made Taiwan into a real additional crisis. I really don't think that's something we have to worry significantly about.
- The US is at war with Russia: 4 scenarios from here - GZERO Media ›
- The Graphic Truth: The cost of the crisis for Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
- Zelensky's next move? - GZERO Media ›
- What We're Watching: Zelensky stays put as EU, US sanction Putin ... ›
- Explainer: Why there’s a Y in Kyiv, but no “the” in Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
The US is at war with Russia: 4 scenarios from here
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here, and a world at war over Ukraine. A lot to talk about. I think the first thing which is really important is to recognize that we are at war right now with Russia. We do not have American troops fighting on the ground in Ukraine and will not. That is true also for all of NATO, but there is an enormous amount of military equipment being sent to help the Ukrainians defend themselves. And that is of course being used against Russia, which has invaded Ukraine and also the wide and deep sanctions that have now been taken by the Americans and by the Europeans against Russia, particularly in terms of freezing a big piece of their sovereign debt, as well as actions to remove their top banks from SWIFT and the financial transaction system. This is meant to cripple the Russian economy. It is meant to force the Russians towards capitulation on Ukraine and barring that to undermine the Russian government.
Now that's what the Americans did with the Iranians when those sanctions were imposed as well. And I'm sure the Iranians saw the Americans at war with them, but the Iranians didn't have any ability to really threaten the Americans. The Russians of course, that's different. And so I do think it's important to understand that from Putin's perspective, his interest in lashing out, not just in consolidating control over Ukraine, but also in causing damage to the West, I think is now something that is serious, is significant, and we should be thinking about. Potentially in terms of cutting off energy supply for a period of time in the winter, even though that would cause further economic damage in Russia, certainly in terms of cyberattacks and disinformation attacks against the United States, against the Europe more broadly. And potentially in terms of harassing NATO ships, aircrafts, on borders, "accidents", I say. These sorts of things that are indeed very deeply dangerous and potentially escalatory.
So it's important to understand that when you are bringing this kind of a fight with a country that is, okay, not the biggest economy, I guess the 11th largest economy roughly the size of Texas, but from a military capability, from a technological capability, is actually vastly greater. That when President Putin says, "I'm going to increase the alerts on our nuclear weapons," he's sending a message that this is not just about Ukraine. And I think that it is important to take him seriously. Not in the sense that forces the West to capitulate, but rather that you have to plan to manage what could be a Cuban Missile Crisis. And none of us want that. None of us want that.
Now, looking at where we are going forward, I think I put forward four broad scenarios and I'll talk briefly about all of them. I'm not very optimistic here. The thing to be optimistic about is the fact that the United States and Europe are much more aligned. The EU today is stronger than it was two weeks ago in almost an unspeakable fashion. NATO is stronger today than two weeks ago in almost an unspeakable fashion. That will continue. Germany is much more committed to the European and the trans-Atlantic security order than they were before. That's all the positive news. But the negative news, when you look at the scenarios is where we go.
First negative news we talk about, the likelihood of negotiations playing out in a useful way. They've just finished the first round, who knows if there'll be a second round of negotiations between the Ukrainians, the Russians on the Belarus border. I suspect that the reason Putin is doing that first is because the Chinese want him to. They want a negotiated outcome. They're pushing him hard. They're Russia's most important friend on the global stage. And so it's important for him to at least pretend to listen to them or be seen to be listening to them. And also that if the Russians feel like they need to attack Ukraine much more broadly and kill a lot of civilians, which they have not done thus far, they've generally not been targeting civilians so far, that has the potential to be extremely unpopular inside Russia, including with people that are quite close to Putin in the military vertical, in the security vertical, and that is a danger. And so they need to justify it or try to justify it. One way to try to justify it would be going through these talks, having them fail. Another would be potential false flag attacks. We'll see where that goes. So I think the likelihood that negotiations succeed are low.
They're just far apart, these sides. Very far apart. The Russians would've to pull all their troops out, they'd have to go back to the Minsk agreement. They'd have to no longer recognize the independence of the broader Donbas. It is very hard to see Putin doing that, especially because doing that, given the damage that's already been wrought upon his economy would show a lot of weakness domestically to someone that probably has a lot of enemies. And that's a dangerous thing to do when you know that the alternative to being in office is probably dead. So, there's a lot at stake for Putin here and not being seen as failing at the biggest and boldest act, also most evil, that he's taken since he's become President. Okay. So that's the negotiating scenario.
Then another scenario would be that he backs down. Negotiations don't work and he backs down. I'm skeptical on that for the same reason, though it is conceivable that as a bully, getting punched in the face, like when the Iranians had been escalating, escalating, escalating, and the Americans didn't really do anything. And then finally the Americans had enough and President Trump decides that he is going to kill Soleimani, the head of the Iranian defense forces and the Iranian response was nothing because they knew that any escalation was really going to be the end of them. It's possible that Putin recognizes that and is willing to take the risk at home. It's more likely that happens if he's able to maintain strong consolidation of power at home, but it's possible. That would be the second option. I think that's more likely than negotiations succeeding, but still relatively unlikely.
A third is that Putin's forced out and that's not likely at all right now, but it could become more likely. A couple things that could make it more likely. First, watch the Russian troops, because they're being asked to fight against Ukrainians and in many cases, they'll have neighbors, relatives, friends that are living there. In many cases, especially as we start talking about killing civilians, you're going to see soldiers lay down their arms, you'll see bomber pilots defect. If that happens in large number, the impact that will have on Ukraine's position and social media, as well as in Russia, even if they try to shut everything down, could be severe. So that's one way that you could start to see significant challenges that would then manifest themselves into Russia and around Putin. The second would be if the demonstrations get to be a lot bigger on the ground. We've seen 6,000 Russians so far that have been arrested, I'm sure those numbers will go up, that have been participating in anti-war demonstrations. They'll go up because now we have anti-war and the economy imploding. Now those are aren't violent demonstrations, but if they became violent around the Kremlin and suddenly the Russians are shooting on their own people, of course that's a way that you could lose a lot of support among the higher echelons. And then finally, there's the oligarchs. And there are several oligarchs that are being very careful in not opposing Putin, but saying they don't really support the war. They wish they could find a climb down. Roman Abramovich, who is an oligarch that is somewhat close to Putin, not one of the closest, nonetheless trying to facilitate negotiations. So that's interesting. And those are not a fundamental threat to Putin, but nonetheless is an interesting way of seeing which way the wind is blowing. And then finally, of course, the security vertical itself. The people on the Security Council who all were on television last week, all saying to a man, "Yes, Mr. Putin, we'll support you no matter what." A couple, including the head of the Security Service, saying maybe we should work on negotiations, cutting him off and showing he has power. Right now again seems like a very strong group, but again, the consequences of even being seen to consider sedition is, you're dead. So we got to watch that group carefully. And if any of them are suddenly removed, we don't hear for them for a while, that would also be very interesting. So that's the third scenario.
And then the final scenario is he escalates. And right now that seems the most likely. It seems like you're going to see a lot more bombing of Kyiv. You've got thousands more troops that are streaming into the country still. You've got a lot more military capacity in terms of equipment, including this massive four-mile column that's streaming towards Kyiv. And I do think that for Putin, it is removing Zelensky, especially now that he's become this global folk hero. And that requires a lot more civilian damage in Kyiv.
So for now, at least I think we're heading towards more escalation. We'll see what that means. Of course, the danger is that the worse that gets, the more you've broken the relationship between the US, Europe and Russia in a way that is truly irreparable and in a way that implies... Remember, for the last 30 years, we've talked about a peace dividend from the Cold War, a peace dividend that we all benefited from. It's gone now. So now we're living in a world without that peace dividend. What does that mean? How much is that going to hurt us? We're about to find out.
- War in Europe: Russia invades Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine war: Has Putin overplayed his hand? - GZERO Media ›
- Could this spread beyond Ukraine? - GZERO Media ›
- Potential proxy war if Russia takes control of Kyiv - GZERO Media ›
- Kyiv likely to fall as Russians escalate war on Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
- Limiting Putin's propaganda: Big tech & the Russia-Ukraine war - GZERO Media ›
- End of globalization for Russia - GZERO Media ›
War in Europe: Russia invades Ukraine
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here, back in the office in New York. A Quick Take for you on where we are in this war against Ukraine.
Massive military intervention. We've all seen almost 200,000 Russian troops that had been arrayed all along Ukraine's borders, direct land, air, and cyber. This is bombs that are falling across all of Ukraine, including even the far west. Hard to imagine this war will last long, at least the early stages. The Ukrainian government will surely fall, likely flee, and end up in exile someplace outside of Ukraine's borders. President Putin has said that this will not be an occupation. Of course, President Putin has also said over the past weeks that there was no intention to invade. He lied then; he's lying now. There is no purpose of diplomacy, at least at this point between the United States, the Europeans, and Russia. Meanwhile, it's all about what can be done to help the Ukrainians defend themselves as best they can. And this is clearly going to be at best at the margins, because the Russians have overwhelming military capabilities.
And it's also what can be done to ensure that NATO allies feel like they will be strongly defended if there ever are going to be further attacks that reach them. And that's required. It's one of the reasons why the United States and Europe are going to be applying significant, maximum sanctions that can be applied, will be applied against the Russians today. In my view, that means technological sanctions, excluding their capabilities of working with Western tech companies, getting imports, export controls, there will be financial transactions sanctions that will mean that all of the major Russian banks are going to be hit, no longer be able to engage in financial transactions with the West. There will be major energy disruptions as well. Nord Stream 2 already killed well beyond that, and the Russians themselves would likely suspend some export to Europe as a consequence of all of this.
That does not include SWIFT in my view. In part, because it's not seen as useful. This is something that's been discussed internally at long, long measure by the Americans, by the Europeans. It would force the Russians and the Chinese to, in short order, develop their own competitive financial transaction system. It will include direct personal sanctions against a swath of major oligarchs and Putin's family. Of course, this is in some ways seen as helpful to Putin because he's bringing back all of that oligarch money from outside of Russia to Russia, even though the oligarchs themselves won't be happy. That's significant. These are the most important sanctions that have been ever placed on a major power since the Soviet Union has collapsed, but it's also very clear that the Russian government has priced all of that in. They have significant reserves that they have built up. They are running a surplus presently, energy prices are high, the Chinese are willing to buy a lot from them.
Putin certainly feels like he's capable of withstanding that. The sanctions we're talking about all in are roughly commensurate, a little bit less severe than those that the United States and the West have imposed on Iran. So absolutely meaningful, will push Russia into a major recession. I've seen Gazprom shares off 50% already. This does matter, but it's a level of economic hardship that clearly the Russians are willing to take. There's another point though, and that is that this unprovoked war, which Russian disinformation is doing its damnedest to convince the Russian people that it's all about Ukraine and the Ukrainians are Nazis and the West is provoking it, the reality is this is unilateral aggression that are crimes against humanity by Putin directly and his government. But I have seen a spate of Russian celebrities, footballers, ballet dancers, opera singers, rock stars that have come out in these initial hours and said that they oppose the war.
They don't oppose Putin, but they oppose the war. That is the kind of thing that historically in Russia would throw away your career. And I do wonder how much of that there is on the ground in Russia today. This is not like China, where the Chinese government has massive surveillance capabilities, they have a social credit system they're rolling out, and they also have provided so well for the economic needs of the Chinese people that a willingness to be loyal to China politically is not considered to be such a hardship. Russia is a country that has a much, much stronger degree of fundamental skepticism, even opposition, not just to Russian power, to all power, to all governments. And that does indeed create some risk to Putin, not tomorrow, but as he changes the global order, as he subverts Europeans security capabilities, he also creates risk for himself on the ground.
The Ukrainians are not suddenly going to like Putin after he's killed thousands, tens of thousands of them with this brutal war after he forces the government into exile or worse if he captures them. And the Russian people aren't going to be happy when they see some of their own citizens in serving in the Russian army, the Russian Air Force coming back in caskets, and that will happen. And that will not just be something we see for the next few days, but something we'll see with partisan fighting going on for a very long time.
So, this genie is not going back into the bottle and we are seeing the beginnings of a second Cold War. I'll talk a lot more about that going forward. Those are my views for right now. Talk to you soon.
- Petraeus: Taking Ukraine is one thing, holding onto it is another ... ›
- War in Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
- Russian invasion of Ukraine begins - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Authoritarians won’t defeat American values, says John Kerry - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine war: Has Putin overplayed his hand? - GZERO Media ›
- The US is at war with Russia: 4 scenarios from here - GZERO Media ›
Putin invasion of Ukraine: Worst outbreak of war since 1939
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Europe on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The worst has come to happen. The Putin invasion of Ukraine that we now see unfolding is the worst outbreak of war that we've had since Hitler invaded Poland in September of 1939. The same motives, the same technique, the same lies leading up to it. What will happen now remains to be seen. Sanctions will have to be imposed very fast and very thoroughly, although that particular policy of deterrence has obviously failed, but it was good to try. We must help the fight in Ukraine. We must treat the Putin regime in the way that it deserves in all single respects. And we are heading bleak days when it comes to the security of Europe in the next few days. Transatlantic solidarity will be absolutely key.
Russian invasion of Ukraine begins
A Russian invasion of Ukraine has begun. This is a turning point in the global order. There is no more powerful rogue actor in the world today than Vladimir Putin. I'm saddened by this turn of events, but it will only strengthen the NATO alliance.
- Ukraine crisis: Wait, was that an invasion? - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Ukraine crisis: the signals pointing to Russian invasion ›
- What would a Russian invasion of Ukraine actually look like ... ›
- Putin invasion of Ukraine: Worst outbreak of war since 1939 - GZERO Media ›
- War in Europe: Russia invades Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
European & US leaders resolute as threat of Ukraine war grows
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, is joined by Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, to provide perspective on the Ukraine crisis at the Munich Security Conference.
Carl Bildt: This is the most dramatic conference that I think every one of us has experienced. I mean, there seems to be significant probability of war breaking out in Europe within days. We have the Ukraine president, we'll see if he will come during the day, but we have an assortment of European leaders and vice president of the United States. And everyone is discussing, can anything more be done to prevent war? And what really do we do if it breaks out?
Ian Bremmer: And it's kind of funny. The theme of the conference this year is helplessness. And when I flew in, I'm like, "That's a horrible theme for the conference." But actually, as it plays out, it's starting to feel a little bit more on target.
Carl Bildt: Yeah. But a lot of sort of resolute speeches here, a lot of cohesion among Europeans, across the Atlantic. If war breaks out, the world will change.
Ian Bremmer: It will. I think, and I'm quite surprised that Zelenskyy is not staying in Kyiv. I hope he brings an extra suitcase or two. But I mean, there is no question. The one good piece of news is that I've never seen the NATO Alliance this cohesive, frankly, in terms of the way that they're responding to this challenge.
Carl Bildt: And the same applies to Europeans.
Ian Bremmer: Absolutely.
Carl Bildt: Where there have always been significant divisions on how you deal with Russia. And some have taken a more benevolent view of Russia. But what might happen is, of course, that Mr. Putin is going to confirm some of the darkest predictions of where Russia is heading.
Ian Bremmer: But if there is a silver lining in all this is that the Swedish-American partnership, as you see, remains resolute as ever.
Carl Bildt: Well, so far.
Ian Bremmer: Well, I mean, you know?
Carl Bildt: Yeah. Can't get everything.
Ian Bremmer: I mean, we've had a bunch of breakfasts. Let's put it that way.
Carl Bildt: Too, too true.
Ian Bremmer: Yeah.
Carl Bildt: Okay.
Ian Bremmer: Very good.
Carl Bildt: Off from Munich.
Ian Bremmer: Off from Munich.