The assassinated IRGC commander led the Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, which has been key terrain for moving advanced weaponry by land and air closer to Israel’s borders. He had close ties with Hezbollah and was the most senior IRGC official to be assassinated since Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. The attack signals that Israel wants Iran to pay a higher price for its involvement in attacks against Israel carried out through proxies, making it likely that it will continue to expand the scope of its attacks beyond Gaza.
Iran has vowed to avenge Bibi’s brazen attack, but most analysts expect Tehran to respond with restraint, preferring to exert indirect pressure through its network of proxy allies rather than engaging in direct conflict with Israel. Anything more would invite a reciprocal attack on Iranian soil and could spark a regional war, something Iran has been trying to avoid.
But some fear Tehran may retaliate by targeting US military assets in the region, which could complicate American efforts to prevent the current tensions from spiraling into a full-scale war, espcially if troops are killed. US intelligence officials called Monday’s strike “reckless” and said they were not made aware of it beforehand, further heightening tensions between Israel, which has yet to officially take responsibility for the attack, and the Biden administration.