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Is the US-Europe alliance permanently damaged?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
Is the transatlantic relationship permanently damaged by what we have seen during the last 10 days or so?
Well, there is no question that the last 10 days or so have been the worst by far for the transatlantic relationship in, well, modern recorded history. You can go through all of the details if you want. It started with the shameful vote in the UN General Assembly on the same day that was three years after the war of aggression that Russia started, where the United States turned around, lined up with Russia, and with primarily a bunch of countries that you would not normally like to be seen in the company of, in order to try to defeat the Europeans, and defeat the Ukrainians, and defeat the Japanese, and defeat the Australians, defeat all of the friends who have criticized the Russians.
It was truly shameful. It was defeated, needless to say, but it left deep marks there. And then it was downhill from there, with that particular week ending with the ambush in the Oval Office, with all of the details associated with that, with sort of a childish dispute about dress codes, and respect for whatever, and total disregard for the important issues that are at stake at the moment. And to that was added, the vice president seriously insulting the allies, primarily the British and the French, and then cutting of aid to Ukraine, including intelligence cooperation, which is unheard of, unheard of when it comes to these particular issues.
So, is damage permanent? Well, one would hope that... well, hope springs eternal, that there would be a way back. But this will be remembered for a long time to come. And the reaction in Europe, well, you have to keep a straight face if you are a political leader. And they do, they hope for the best, but they're increasingly preparing for the worst. What we might be heading into is Mr. Trump, President Trump lining up with President Putin in a deal that is essentially on Russia's term over Ukraine, then trying to force Ukraine into that particular deal, a repetition of Munich 1938.
Will that work? I think it's unlikely to work because the Ukrainians are determined to stand up for their country. And they have the support of the Europeans. Czechoslovakia in 1938 didn't have much support. So, whether it will work or not is debatable, but that is the direction in which things are heading at the moment. Can this be stopped or can the trajectory of things be changed? Let's hope. There's a flurry of meetings in Europe. There will be a lot of contacts across the Atlantic. There is a strong support for Ukraine in Europe, but then deep apprehensions of where we are heading. Further four years with President Trump. After that, (possibly) four to eight years with JD Vance. Well, well, there's a lot of thinking that needs to be done on this side of the Atlantic.
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Why Trump won’t break the Putin-Xi alliance
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does Trump's relationship with Putin isolate or concern China?
I wouldn't say so. I think that Putin and Xi Jinping have one of the stronger relationships on the global stage today. I think they've met something like 81 times bilaterally since the two have been in power. They're both leaders for life, they run dictatorships, and they support each other all the time at the United Nations. There's a lot of technology and trade, and China needs to buy Russian energy. The Americans certainly don't. So, for lots of reasons, this relationship is much more stable and strong than anything that Trump is likely to build with Putin. Especially because Trump is a one more term president, 78 years old, with checks and balances in the US, even if they're getting weaker, they exist. That's not true in Russia. It's not true in China. So, I don't think Beijing is very worried about that.
What does the resignation of Iran's Vice President Zarif signal about tensions in the country?
Well, given the fact that the finance minister was also just impeached this weekend, also a would-be reformist, a moderate, in the context of the Iranian political spectrum, it means the supreme leader and the conservatives do not trust these guys to engage with the Americans or the West. It's a harder line Iranian policy as they move towards greater levels of stockpiling, of enriched uranium, and as their military strategy has fallen apart for the region. If anyone is going to talk to the Americans, and if anyone is going to try to forestall attacks from Israel, and maybe by the US as well, it's not going to be the people that got the original Iranian nuclear deal done, the JCPOA. So, that's what it looks like in reform. Nascent under a lot of trouble. The Iranian president under a lot of pressure right now at home.
What's next for the Israel-Hamas ceasefire as the first phase comes to an end?
Well, I think what everyone is waiting for is the Egypt deal, which is being penned and is being sent over in advance of an Arab League summit to Trump in the coming hours, if not day. Originally, it was a few hundred pages long. The Saudis told the Egyptians, "Maybe you want to have an executive summary that's a little glossier for Trump? He's not reading a couple hundred pages." That's been worked on all weekend. And it certainly isn't the Americans owning Gaza. It certainly isn't the Palestinians being forced out or all voluntarily leaving. Whether or not Trump is prepared to sign off on that, or at least allow it to go forward and not veto it, as long as it hits that hurdle, I think you'll have pretty much all of the Arab states signing off on it in the Arab summit. That's where we are right now, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Could Europe replace the US military?
Earlier this week, Friedrich Merz, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, made an astounding declaration: “The Americans … are indifferent to the fate of Europe,” he said. “Europeans must … ensure that we are at least capable of defending the European continent on our own.”
To be clear, the US hasn’t stepped away from Europe’s security just yet. But Trump 3.0’s aggressive posture towards the EU – on trade, free speech, and Ukraine – has made the specter of abandonment feel real enough.
The EU would need to replace some 300,000 US troops, as well as hundreds of tanks and artillery pieces, according to one report. The yearly cost would be some $260 billion.
Such a rapid increase would need to be financed initially by borrowing. But that could clash with EU, and country-level, debt limits meant to avoid financial crises. In Germany, for example, Merz on Tuesday ruled out weakening the constitutionally mandated debt limits – but he is also reportedly working with the outgoing parliament to create a massive new defense fund.
In the UK, meanwhile, PM Keir Starmerannounced further cuts to the British foreign aid budget to boost defense spending to 3% of GDP by the middle of the next decade (from 2.3% today.)
What would “defense” mean? Holding Russia at bay in Ukraine would be a big focus. But beyond that, naming the threats that Western European countries face directly could be contentious. Keep an eye out for this Sunday’s emergency EU defense summit, which will touch on just that.
The bottom line: For decades, the US has underwritten Europe’s security. But Europe is now being forced to answer questions it never expected to ask.
Trump's Ukraine peace plan confuses Europe leaders
What is the European reaction to what President Trump is trying to achieve in terms of peace?
Well, confusion. A lot of people, and there are quite a number of European leaders here, today, don't really understand what President Trump is up to. He wants peace, that's fine. But peace can be, well, that could be the complete capitulation of Ukraine, that is the Putin definition of peace. Or it can be the victory of Ukraine, that's another definition of peace. So exactly how President Trump intends to pursue this? And without Europe, obviously, neither Putin nor Trump wants Europe around the table.
But how do you do it without Ukraine on the table? Because a lot of the things that are going to be necessary to agree with are things that have to be agreed with Ukraine, with President Zelensky. So a lot of question marks. The desire for peace is clearly here, no question about that. This war has to come to end. But the peace has to be just, it has to be stable. It has to be something that is not just a pause for Russia to recalibrate and restart the war.
So a lot of things to discuss between the European leaders and between the European leaders and President Zelensky, is happening in Kyiv here today. But also eventually, across the Atlantic, President Macron is in Washington today, Prime Minister Starmer is heading into Washington on Thursday.
Will Trump & Musk punish Brazil over Bolsonaro indictment?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What is Trump's long-term play with apparently treating Putin like a friend rather than an adversary?
His play is to end the war in Ukraine. His play is to be seen as a great deal-maker and also a return to what we call the law of the jungle, where the most powerful countries are the ones that deserve to be at the table, and if you're not at the table you're being served for dinner. That is where I think we're going. I don't think that Secretary of State Marco Rubio wanted to be there, but he's much more... He's going to be loyal, and I think the Republican senators have pushed back hard on Gaza but not so much on this. We'll see. Certainly from Riyadh, from what we've heard from Elon, what we've heard from Trump, they are working very hard to get a full reconciliation between the United States and Russia, between Trump and Putin, irrespective of what the Europeans have to say about it. And the Ukrainians are going to be pressed very, very hard to accept the deal or be left all by themselves. We'll see how the Europeans and the Ukrainians play it, but that is what they're looking at.
How likely would the release of all remaining captives, as proposed by Hamas, actually lead to a permanent truce with Israel?
Well permanent truce with Israel implies you can agree on what governance in Gaza is going to look like. The Israelis, of course, refuse to accept a state for the Palestinians. The Israelis refuse not only for Hamas to participate in any government, not surprisingly. But, of course, also the Palestinian authority participate in government. That's very different from what the Gulf states, what the Egyptians, what the Jordanians, all America's allies, are planning to propose for Gaza. I think we can get an extended ceasefire. That ceasefire might last essentially permanently, but the Israelis would still have a buffer zone, you wouldn't be heading towards statehood, and the Israelis would reserve the right to continue to engage in selected strikes if they see targets of opportunity that they consider to be militants working with for Hamas. So that's where I think we are, but very unlikely at this point that I think you'll see a restart of the war that has been lasting for well over a year at this point. I think full-blown military incursion on the ground is now on the rear-view mirror.
Does Bolsonaro's indictment for an alleged coup plot signal tough times ahead for Brazil?
I think it does. It's very likely that Bolsonaro is going to end up imprisoned. That case is going to take a while to work through the courts. Probably won't be resolved until 2026 with all the appeals that will end up happening, but he won't be able to run again. Now you can still announce you're going to run and then pull out your candidacy at the last minute like Lula did, who served time in jail himself in the past, so this isn't completely new uncharted territory for the Brazilians. But keep in mind that if Bolsonaro is refused to be allowed to run, he is completely supported by Trump. He's completely supported by Elon Musk, and that will get stronger. The Supreme Court in Brazil is politicized and is also seen by Trump and Musk as root of all evil in Brazil, so they'll be going after that. And will that be tied to tougher tariffs on Brazil? I expect it will. So, I think Brazil is going to be in a lot of trouble here, and I think that their economy is probably going to take a hit on the back of what we're going to see politically inside Brazil and the nature of the relations with the United States. Okay, that's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
HARD NUMBERS: Chinese marriages fall, Romanian president resigns, Bangladesh police arrest hundreds, Palestinian Authority may scrap “martyrs’ payments.”
20: The number of marriages in China fell to 6.1 million last year, 20% lower than in 2023 and down by more than 50% since 2013. The marital malaise is part of a bigger demographic crisis facing China. Although it boasts the world’s second-largest population, at 1.4 billion people, the country’s population is declining. Until 2015, the state enforced a “one child” policy to avoid urban overcrowding. But since then high costs of child care and education have stymied government efforts to encourage people to have children.
6: At least six people were detained Monday during celebratory demonstrations in Bucharest following the resignation of Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. Iohannis has been under pressure to step down since the annulment last December of the election to pick his successor after a social media campaign allegedly organized by Russia helped a little-known far-right candidate to win. Although Iohannis’ term has ended, he was trying to stay in power until the rerun election in May. This triggered criticism and protests over the perception that, on top of involvement in the unpopular decision to scrap the election results, he was acting unconstitutionally by exceeding his term.
1,300: Police in Bangladesh have arrested at least 1,300 supporters of former PM Sheikh Hasina, who was ousted in mass protests last August that were touched off by a backlash against certain hiring quotas in the civil service. Since then the interim government has struggled to tamp down tensions between supporters of Hasina, a strong female leader who came to power in 2009, and her opponents. Hasina herself is currently in exile in India.
20: The Palestinian Authority, which enjoys limited self-rule in the West Bank, has reportedly signaled to the Trump administration that it could scrap its controversial “martyrs’ payments.” Under this 20-year-old policy, the PA gives financial support to the families of Palestinians killed or wounded while carrying out acts of violence against Israel or who are imprisoned by Israel. The PA has often framed the policy as a social welfare measure under conditions of occupation, while critics say that it’s a “pay to slay” policy that simply encourages more violence and terrorism.
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At Davos, all eyes are on Trump
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