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Gaza ceasefire likely as Biden and Trump both push
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
A Gaza ceasefire has gained momentum. What is the likelihood a deal will be reached soon?
We've heard this news before. At least five times over the last year that we've heard we were almost at a Gaza ceasefire. This time around though it looks much more likely. Why is that? Because Trump is about to be president, because Trump's envoys and Biden's envoys have been working together on these issues, and also because that means pressing the Israeli government in a way that feels much more serious if you are the prime minister. And also because Trump has been pressing Hamas. And so, I think the unilateralism is there. The fact the deal was already very close, and now this means Biden gets to say he got the deal and Trump gets to say he's ended a war, at least for the time being, and a lot more hostages get freed. So yeah, this time around it looks pretty likely.
What do I make of a potential sale of TikTok to Elon Musk?
Well, it's just been announced that the Chinese are considering it. I always thought that it was more likely than not that if the Supreme Court were to uphold a ban that the Chinese would probably allow a sale to go through. Though they were going to say they were never going to until the last moment because why give up leverage when you don't necessarily have to? So their historic unwillingness doesn't mean to me that they're actually unwilling. To the extent that there is a deal and it goes to Elon, he becomes more powerful, and he also is seen by the Chinese as owing them one. So would he facilitate an improved, a more stable relationship between the US and China? It's an early indication that he could play a role. He hasn't said anything on the China front yet, but certainly you would expect that he would meet with the high-level envoy that's going to the inauguration that Xi Jinping was invited to on the 20th. That's what we should watch in the next week. Okay, that's it for that one.
What does Lebanon's new president mean for Hezbollah?
Weaker Hezbollah, but so much is going to be determined on what Israel decides to do on the ground in the south of Lebanon. Are they staying there for a longer period of time? We've heard news of late that they intend to maintain that occupation in a longer than just couple of weeks, couple of months environment, which makes it harder to keep Hezbollah from starting fighting again. On balance, I think this ceasefire is looking a little shakier right now, even with the new Lebanese president than it had a few weeks ago. We'll see. But if it does break down, the level of fighting won't be what it was a few months ago because Hezbollah doesn't have that capacity and the Iranians can't restock their weapons because Assad has fallen in Syria.
Latest
Meta scraps fact-checking program: What next?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What do you make of Meta ending its fact-checking program?
Well, it's a direct response to Trump's victory and a little late. They probably could have done it a few weeks ago, but they wanted to line up their new board members with people that are more aligned with Trump and also their new head of public policy. Now that Nick Clegg, who was much more oriented to Harris, is gone. So, they're like everybody else, heading to Mar-a-Lago and wanting to get on board with the new administration. That is what's happening. And of course, it means implications for those concerned about safety features on social media are going to grow. This is a complete shift of the pendulum in the other direction.
What is the fallout from Justin Trudeau's resignation?
It's not surprising. He's been there for 10 years. His popularity had really fallen off a cliff. And that was even before Chrystia Freeland, his deputy prime minister, shot him in the face a few weeks ago. So, it was clear that he was going to go. The most important implication is that after elections coming up, you're likely to have a conservative government run by Pierre Poilievre, which will be much more aligned with Trump. I don't consider Poilievre's policies to be very America First-ish for Canada. He's not quite that kind of a politician. But he will be, I think, very supported by Trump, Elon Musk and right-wing populists in the United States.
So, in that regard, as you think about re-upping the US-Mexico-Canada relationship, agreement-trade relationship, you talk about tariffs and all the rest, I suspect that relationship will be more normalized and more stable for the Canadians going forward.
As Trump is about to kick off his second term, who are his friends around the world?
A lot more than he had last time around. I mean, you could focus on Argentina and President Milei. In the recent G20 Summit, Trump wasn't there yet, but Milei was. And I mean his talking points were as if Trump was in the room. Of course, Giorgia Meloni, who just made her trip to Mar-a-Lago, she's very strongly pro-EU. But she's also very aligned personally with Trump. And that is going to be a strong relationship for them.
Germans are going to have their election shortly. Friedrich Merz is likely to win. And I suspect he's going to be much closer to Trump, certainly than outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been. The Gulf States, Israel, that was Trump's first trip as president back in 2017, will be his early trip. I am very sure in this presidency, very strong relations. Don't sleep on Narendra Modi in India either. That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Why is TikTok being investigated by the EU over Romania's elections?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Northern Italy.
Why is the EU investigating TikTok over the elections in Romania?
Well in the first round of the Romanian presidential elections, there were suddenly, just days before the election, over 25,000 TikTok accounts that suddenly appeared. And they seemed to be supporting, very heavily, the rather sudden far-right candidate who had quite a result in that particular election that has subsequently been annulled. So it makes sense to investigate what really happened and who was behind it.
What is the new French prime minister doing in order to resolve the political crisis of the country?
Early days. He hasn't even presented his government as of yet. But I would guess that he will try to have a dialogue both with the elements of the moderate left and the moderate right to see if he can get a budget through. He is an experienced operator on the French political scene. Perhaps less determined in terms of policies than Michel Barnier was, but let's see. I think he'll present his policy program by mid-January, and there we'll be able to judge somewhat more clearly what prospects he has.
Ukraine kills top Russian general: What it means for the war
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Ukraine assassinated a top Russian general on a Moscow sidewalk. Is this a significant or dangerous escalation?
I think it's a significant escalation in the sense that the highest-ranked Russian official who has been killed by Ukraine in the war has been assassinated in Russia. And it's the kind of thing that, frankly, we've seen from Israel in terms of top officials, Lebanon and Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza, in Iran. So I mean, this kind of asymmetric warfare, in addition to the fighting on the front lines, is something that we're increasingly getting used to everywhere. But of course, not so much from the weaker power, in this case, Ukraine.
And what we're seeing is an escalation on both sides. More Russian missile attacks, larger numbers, more damaging, more efforts to take territory, more significant than early in the war by the Russians in Ukraine. And more Ukrainian efforts to do damage to Russia before negotiations start to get them both in a better position. Is it more dangerous? A little bit it is. But it also shows that negotiations are coming soon.
With the recent collapse of both France and Germany's governments what kind of turmoil does it create for the EU bloc?
It just means a less strong European Union because the replacements for these governments are not all aligned in the same direction. In France, it's going to be internal fighting between foreign policy run by Macron and domestic policy run by a series of prime ministers, and very challenging to get a strong coordinated support for the EU. In Germany, a very weak Scholz coalition is going to be replaced by probably reasonably weak center-right coalition.
We see a level of populism, nationalism getting stronger in outcomes for European elections across the board. And some of that is a very challenging economic environment that is not rebounding the way the United States is. Some of that is very strong opposition to all of the refugees. Migrants a bigger problem in Europe than it is in the United States. And part of it is upset that they don't have the sovereignty to respond because of the European Union, and that's an easy thing to make into a bogeyman. So for all of those reasons, I think the EU is going to get a little weaker while it's been getting stronger over the last 10 years.
Why does Trump say Turkey "holds the key" to Syria's future?
Well, one, because the Americans under Trump are likely to remove the small number of troops that the United States has had operating in the north. And that means that Turkey is the country that is most capable and also most aligned with the United States to respond, to take over that position to lead the fight against ISIS.
Also, if you're Turkey to lead the fight to contain the Kurds, which is not so aligned with what the Americans want. They'll also be key to reconstruction. The money will come largely from the EU, but the reconstruction on the ground will largely be done by the Turks. So for both of those reasons, if there's any international player that is going to be critical to what happens in Syria, it's not going to be the United States. It's not going to be the Russians that have been forced out. It's not going to be Iranians that aren't playing the state's different role anymore. It's going to be America's NATO ally, Turkey.
Can Syria rebuild to welcome returning refugees?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from San Francisco, United States.
with all of the millions of Syrian refugees that you find in Europe, what's got to be the consequences for them of the fall of the Assad regime?
Well, the first thing that's happened is that European countries have imposed new asylum applications from Syria. That's fairly logical. But the bigger question is, of course, to which is that it will be possible for these people to return. Very many of them want to. There have been a huge number of people who've already returned, primarily from Turkey. But that's going to be dependent upon stability in the governance of Syria. That's still an open question for that. And secondly, economic reconstruction. That is both humanitarian aid and then lifting eventually the economic sanctions so that there is the possibility of bringing the country back again and people having the possibility to go back. Let's see, let's hope, and let's work on that.
What's the nature of the big agreement that is now being concluded with the European Union and the Mercosur countries of South America?
It's been negotiated for a very long time. It's a free trade agreement. It's a partnership agreement. It is going to be the biggest such in the world. It's two huge economies. Significant benefits in reducing trade and opening up for more of trade to the benefit of the European economy, to the benefit of the economies of the Latin American countries. There's still opposition to it in some European countries, notably France. That has to do with the French farmers fearing competition from more competitive Brazilian perhaps beef or whatever it is. That, has to be said, is something that is good for the European consumers. So slight battle ahead inside the European Union, but hopefully it will go through. And as I said, the biggest such deal that the world has seen so far.
Why Assad’s sudden fall was surprising
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why did you originally think Assad would be able to resist being overthrown?
I am absolutely surprised at the sudden regime change after 50 years of the Assads being in charge. A couple of reasons for it. First is because despite HTS wanting to engage in strikes, the Turkish government, which has been supporting them militarily, had been saying, "No, no, no." And even when they supported them, it was a flashing yellow light. It was take local territory, let the Syrians have more control over their border region. It was not going after Assad. Also, because the Russians and the Iranians, though they were significantly stretched, were providing military support in the early days. So that's the reason I thought that they were likely to be able to resist, but the fact is that they imploded very, very quickly.
What led you to believe Yoon's martial law declaration would fail in South Korea?
Well, here felt a lot like January 6th in the United States, January 8th in Brazil. You had a besieged individual leader, in this case not about an election, but facing 20% approval rates and massive corruption scandals and all sorts of impeachments against members of his cabinet, just getting desperate and deciding to pull the trigger on emergency martial law illegally and without talking even to leadership of his own party. So it seemed pretty clear that there wasn't going to be support. The South Korean people, the judiciary, the parliament, and rank and file, and the military were clearly not going to be supportive. So I mean, I expected that to last very, very briefly, and it fell apart very quickly indeed. He should be out of power in short order. And I expect he's going to resign, by the way, as opposed to being impeached, but it could go either way.
What's another major geopolitical assessment you've made that played out differently than expected, and what does it reveal about the complexities of global politics?
One of the biggest ones is probably the role of technology in geopolitics. Back in the '90s, if you think about the coloured revolutions in the former Soviet republics, you think about the Arab Spring after that, technology was really the communications revolution. It was decentralizing. It gave individuals access to more information and power. It undermined authoritarian regimes, and it promoted democracy. And today, just 20 years, 25 years later, technology has completely changed geopolitically. It's much more top-down. It's much more centralizing. It's about the data revolution, the surveillance revolution. It increasingly empowers authoritarian states that know how to use it, and it undermines democracies. And that is maybe one of the biggest geopolitical changes that's happened in my political lifetime, certainly the biggest since the Soviet Union imploded back in 1989 to '91. And it just goes to show that no matter what you think about the world, if you're not constantly updating your views, you're going to be wrong at some point.
Episodes
What France's government collapse means for Macron and Europe
What's happening in France? Is there any way for the European Union and other Europeans to influence the course of events in Georgia? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Parma, Italy.
Leaders of Poland, Nordic & Baltic countries affirm strong support for Ukraine
What was the purpose of the big leaders meeting in Sweden today? What is the nature of the political transition ongoing in the European Union? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Northern Italy.
What Trump’s cabinet picks reveal so far
As Trump makes his cabinet picks, there's a lot more clarity on the national security side than there is on the economic side, says Jon Lieber. He breaks down the key picks and the key roles that remain open so far.
Ukraine fires US missiles into Russia. What's next?
Ukraine has launched US-made long-range missiles into Russia for the first time. Will this change the course of the war? How likely will Trump be able to carry out mass deportations when he's in office? Will there be political fallout from Hong Kong's decision to jail pro-democracy activists? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
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