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How Europe might respond to Trump's tariffs
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What's going to be the reaction to the Trump trade war against Europe but also against the rest of the world?
Well, it was worse than expected. What you will hear coming out of Brussels is strong words, but also saying, "Well, let's try and see if we can mitigate, if we can negotiate, if we can have some changes in this." That's going to take some time. Not much hope that that will produce anything. But anyhow, the attempt will be made. And then I would expect fairly strong European countermeasures.
But then, I think the global impact of it is really astonishing. Key US allies and partners in Asia have been hit much harder, even harder than Europe. So, we see the US in terms of economy retreating from the world, and trying to build its own small fortress there behind its oceans. For us, Europeans, the conclusion must be to do the opposite, to reach out to the world. 87% of global imports are not in the US. Two thirds of the growth of the global economy is going to be in Asia-Pacific in the years to come. So, Europe, well, US is doing its own thing, can't do very much about that. But we must be even more strategic, offensive, forward-looking in reaching out to the rest of the world. Develop and preserve as much as we can of an open global trading system. That is the way to prosperity in the future.
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Turkey's protests & crackdowns complicate EU relations
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
Do you think the Signal controversy in the US will have an impact on the transatlantic relationship?
Well, not in itself. It does betray an attitude to security issues that is somewhat too relaxed, to put it very mildly. But what does betray as well is the disdain, the resentment, the anger against Europeans that is there from the vice president, the secretary of defense, and others, and that is duly noted. And of course, something that is subject of what we have to note it. It's there. It's a fact.
What impact do you think the Turkish protest and instability will have on Turkish relationships with its European allies?
Well, it's certainly not going to be a good thing. We have an interest in good relationship and stable relationship with Turkey. It's a significant EU strategic actor. It's a significant economy. But of course, when we have these arrests of a prominent opposition, politicians, we have massive protests that are repressed, that we have massive violations of social media and arrests of journalists and things like that. It does complicate things to put it very mildly. We haven't seen the end of that story yet.
What if Japan & South Korea sided with China on US tariffs?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
If China, Japan, and South Korea formed a united front, what kind of leverage would they have in negotiating against US tariffs?
Oh, if that were to happen, they'd have incredible leverage because China's the second-largest economy in the world, Japan's the third. This would be a really, really big deal. Except for the fact that it's not going to happen. Their trade ministers did just meet, and they've had some interesting coordinated statements. They do a lot of trade together, and they want to continue that. But the fact that the security of South Korea and Japan is overwhelmingly oriented towards the US, and they would not want to undermine that, means that they will certainly not see China as a confederate to coordinate with against the United States, not least on trade. The American response would be belligerent. So no, that's not going to happen.
Will Syria's newly formed transitional government be enough for Arab and Western leaders to lift sanctions and restore diplomatic ties?
I think they are heading in that trajectory. The question is, will it be enough to keep Syria stable and away from descending into civil war? And there, there's a huge question because this is a completely untested government, completely inexperienced, no governance background, very little background in terms of military stability, especially with all of the new members, militias that have been integrated from across a very diverse country. And a lot of internal opponents that are sitting back and waiting to fight. So I'm more worried about that than I am about international support. I think largely the international support they need is going to be there.
Why does Trump want to take Greenland?
I have no idea. Maybe somebody showed him a globe from the top and he saw how big it was, and he's like, "Oh, that'd be kind of cool to have." It's not like there's anything he needs that he can't get directly from negotiating with Denmark. Plenty of willingness to allow the US to have expanded bases, troops on the ground. Plenty of willingness from other countries in the region to do more in terms of patrolling, build more icebreakers to deal with. The Finnish President, Alex Stubb, who just went to see him golfing with him, spent seven hours over the weekend moving in that direction. But you saw from Vice President Vance, he's like, "Well, the President wants it. So of course I got to respond to that." Yeah, but they don't have any reason. And I do think that it is sufficiently blowing up in their faces on the ground in Denmark and in Greenland, that the Danes understand not to make a big deal out of this and it will eventually blow over. It is annoying to them symbolically, but it doesn't matter all that much. In that regard, we can spend a little bit less time on it. Okay, that's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
US travel warnings issued by its closest allies
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why are some countries issuing travel advisories for visiting the United States?
You'd call it an abundance of caution, but things are moving very quickly in the US. It's only been two months since Trump has been inaugurated. And many countries, allies of the US, feel that treatment of their citizens will not be aligned with rule of law in the United States. Certainly, worry given, for example, some green card holders facing deportation for what would be considered for an American citizen just exercise of freedom of speech, freedom of organization.
Also, they've seen what's happened with law firms and the chilling impact of Trump going after them if they are engaged in supporting lawsuits against the government. All of those things and a recognition that these are moving fast and getting more challenging quickly, quickly, quickly, is making a whole bunch of American allies issue travel advisories telling their citizens, "You shouldn't be traveling to the US right now." We've already seen a big economic impact of Canada tourism to the United States hurting the US economy. Haven't seen that as much from Europe yet, but I expect that you will. And of course, in terms of people that are applying for green cards and wanting to get jobs in top American corporations or apply to be students at top American universities, I think that's going to have a big impact going forward longer term.
How are the political tensions in Netanyahu's government impacting the war with Hamas?
Well, the fact that the far-right coalition is fully back together because the war has restarted. That's why the far-right party left, and that was because they didn't like the ceasefire and they certainly were opposed to phase two that would've led to the Israelis to do a full pullout of the military from Gaza. Well, now the war has restarted, the Israeli government is talking directly about annexation if the hostages are not all released. And they're doing that with full support of the United States. Big demonstrations in Israel, concerned that Israel is no longer going to be a democracy, especially because the prime minister has now sacked his Attorney General, has sacked the head of the Shin Bet, both unprecedented for Israel since independence. But Netanyahu has full support from his coalition and from the United States. So, he's in a strong position right now.
Will public outcry over the arrest of Istanbul's mayor lead to major political reforms or shifts within the Turkish government?
I don't expect so at all. They are allowing for large demonstrations to continue in Istanbul, even though President Erdogan has said that's illegal, in part because there's a lot of media there. There's a lot of focus there. They clearly want to limit that violence. But they've been cracking down really hard everywhere else in the country, including the capital, Ankara. They've dealt with this sort of thing in the past. The military is fully aligned with Erdogan, and the top is quite politicized. Media, dido, overwhelmingly aligned with the state. So is the judiciary after the failed coup attempt.
So for all of those reasons, I think this is going to be a move from Erdogan towards a more direct autocracy as opposed to a hybrid system. Unfortunate and yet one more place where the Europeans are in trouble. But nonetheless he's been quite useful to a number of other countries around the world in terms of dealing with refugees from Syria. If you're the Europeans, dealing with Turkey on the ground, dealing with Syria on the ground, and stability if you're the United States. And the Gulf States have found him useful as an interlocutor as well on Russia-Ukraine too. So for all of those reasons, very important internationally, very repressive domestically. Two things I expect to continue.
Is Europe finally ready to defend itself?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Tabiano, Italy.
How serious is Europe about really beefing up its defense and rearming?
It is very serious indeed, although it's different in different parts of Europe. If you look at the EU countries, they have been increasing their defense spending over the last few years by roughly a third. That's a hell of a lot of money.
And if you look forward, I think there's a division between, say, Germany, Poland, Nordic Baltic states. You will see substantial further increases in defense spending there. There's more a question mark in the Mediterranean region, Greece support, where there is more hesitancy to do the rapid buildup of forces that is required.
Then, there is the problem of integrating defense industries and integrating command and control efforts. But we are undoubtedly at the new stage when it comes to developing serious integrated European defense capabilities, hopefully, to operate them together with the United States. But, as things are, also have the ability to operate them in the future more independently.
Will the Democrats risk a government shutdown?
Well, the old game of chicken over funding the US federal government is back on, as Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said Wednesday his party would NOT vote for the six-month stopgap funding bill passed by the GOP in the House on Tuesday night.
Given the procedural details of this kind of funding bill, which requires 60 votes, the Dems can kill the bill despite holding just 45 seats.
Why’d the Dems do this? They say the six-month bill, which would keep current overall spending levels in place without earmarking specific outlays, would give the Trump administration, and quasi-official DOGE Czar Elon Musk, too much leeway to radically reshape the federal government.
Instead, the Dems prefer a 30-day stopgap, during which time they want to negotiate more specific tax and spend details with the GOP. Getting a new bill will be tough, as the House has already broken for a weeklong St Patrick’s Day recess.
The clock is ticking: Current funding for the Federal government expires just past midnight on Friday.
The political calculation: Although Democrats have in the past criticized Republicans for pushing the government towards a shutdown, they may be betting they’d face less blowback for a shutdown than they would for the perception that they failed to stop Donald Trump’s cost-cutting agenda, which could target key entitlements like Medicaid.
But is this just posturing? A report in The Hill early on Thursday suggested that in the end, enough centrist Democrats could in fact vote to pass the bill.
Episodes
Trump's tariffs & the end of globalization
Overnight, the US moved to having the world’s highest tariffs by a long margin. Here is Ian Bremmer's Quick Take on the near and long-term fallout
Reality hits on new tariffs, but Trump says it’s ‘going very well’
Stocks have plummeted, layoffs have begun, and confusion has metastasized about the bizarre method the United States used to calculate its tariff formula. But Donald Trump says it’s “going very well."
Budget clash puts South African government on brink of collapse
The second largest party in South Africa’s coalition, the business-friendly Democratic Alliance, launched a legal challenge on Thursday to block a 0.5% VAT increase in the country’s new budget, raising concerns that the fragile government could collapse.
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