Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at Polexit fears, China & India energy woes, and Texas Governor Abbott's ban on COVID vaccine mandates.
Is a "Polexit" from the EU a real possibility?
You just want to say "Polexit", right? I mean, you don't get to brand that, Poland. It's like being in the G20. You don't get to be in line. You're the 21st largest economy, at least you were when they put that together. They're annoyed about that. They're not going to leave the EU, but there is a real fight over recent judicial rulings that EU laws are not aligned with Poland. Poland supersedes. There's going to be a fight. There might be some fines. Everyone's going to be animated about it. But Poland's not going anywhere. Are some demonstrations though.
Will China and India's energy woes contribute to a worsening global energy crisis?
In the near term? Absolutely. I mean, we're moving towards renewables, but the infrastructure isn't there. Plus, we have all of these supply chain shortages given disruptions from the pandemic. And we're about to have an IMF annual meeting that is going to significantly downgrade expectations for global growth this year. And a decent part of that is increases in energy prices and shortages all over the world, China and now India facing the brunt of that. They'll do what they can to ensure that in the winter, the consumers have access because otherwise, people get real mad. But of course, that could lead to greater industry shutdowns. Again, more challenges on the global economy.
How are vaccine mandates going in the United States?
Well, it depends on what part of the United States you're in. A lot of the US, Biden of course provided support, and a lot of companies around the country are implementing them. Where they're being implemented, you see very significant amounts of vaccination, and the CEOs are generally happy about that. Of course, there's backlash. This has gotten politicized most recently in Texas, Governor Abbott saying he will not support. In fact, he'll make illegal anyone that tries to mandate a vaccine. By the way, only COVID; not other vaccines that are mandated for kids, for example, and will continue to be mandated. That's not a problem. Hasn't explained why that is. We'll see what he says. But it's good voting if you're in Texas. Talk to you all soon. Be good.